With Democrats gaining two seats in the Senate, speculation ramped up yesterday surrounding how the 2012 elections could affect the prospects of reforming the nation's chemical regulations.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) and public health advocates appeared stalwart in their commitment to overhauling the 1976 Toxic Substances Control Act, or TSCA, the nation's only major environmental statute to never receive a significant congressional update.

And Lautenberg may be facing a now-or-never moment; his term ends in 2014, and at 88 years old, the Democrat will undoubtedly be the subject of retirement speculation in the next Congress.

"With this election behind us, it's time to take action on TSCA reform and put an end to the chemicals companies' political games," Lautenberg said in a statement. "We will keep fighting for a vote in the Senate on my 'Safe Chemicals Act' and will push to see real reform signed into law by the president."

But other observers were skeptical, noting the overall dynamics of the Senate haven't changed much. Despite his chamber's 55-seat majority, Lautenberg will still need to pick up Republican support if he wants his bill to succeed.

Moreover, a key change in the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee could throw a wrench in Lautenberg's efforts.

Louisiana Sen. David Vitter is slated to take over as the top Republican on the panel because current ranking member James Inhofe (R-Okla.) has reached his term limit in that post. (Inhofe can remain on the panel in a senior position, though.)

Inhofe worked with Lautenberg last year on TSCA reform, holding a series of stakeholder meetings before eventually criticizing Lautenberg for bringing S. 847 up for a committee vote too soon. The bill then stalled before reaching the Senate floor because it lacked bipartisan support (E&E Daily, Aug. 2).

Jason Rano of the Environmental Working Group said one big question is whether Vitter will take a similar leadership role on TSCA and develop as strong a relationship with Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) as Inhofe had. Inhofe and Boxer led the committee together for nearly a decade.

"How that dynamic changes with Sen. Vitter taking over as ranking member will play a significant role," Rano said. "If staff can work together and there is mutual respect, at least that opens some doors."

Vitter appears to have stepped up to the plate on TSCA. His staff began discussing the issue with Lautenberg's last year, and he is reportedly working on legislative language with the input of industry groups. It remains unclear, however, whether the Republican would seek to introduce his own bill. Vitter's office did not return a request for comment.

But proponents of the bill noted that Lautenberg may have more tactics available to him next year. For one, he has shown his legislation can pass out of committee -- that dynamic won't change. That could allow him to focus on targeting moderate Republican senators and, in particular, women who may be more open to arguments on children's exposure to chemicals in commerce. Those Republicans could include Sens. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, though she has previously expressed concerns about Lautenberg's bill.

Daniel Rosenberg of the Natural Resources Defense Council added that forcing a floor vote could put pressure on Republicans as the public becomes more aware of the issue.

"I think it's going to be hard for most members to vote against reforming TSCA at this point," Rosenberg said. "We can expect a vote on the 'Safe Chemicals Act' on the floor next year."

The focus will also shift back to industry, which has largely shied away from supporting Lautenberg's bill in an attempt to stall it, Rosenberg said.

Some industry representatives acknowledged that they need to change their tactics. Bill Allmond of the Society of Chemical Manufacturers and Affiliates (SOCMA), a trade association, recognized that there is growing public desire for TSCA reform, so industry, as well as Congress, should focus on piecemeal changes instead of a comprehensive overhaul.

"The fact that we have the status quo underscores the need for industry to pivot our strategy going forward," Allmond said. "We need to be more realistic about the chances for any sort of comprehensive TSCA reform in the near future."

A document being discussed within industry obtained by E&E Daily outlines five potential consensus areas: developing a risk-based system for U.S. EPA to review its entire inventory of existing chemicals, reforming EPA's approach to new chemicals, strengthening the agency's ability to restrict chemicals, bolstering the agency's ability to collect exposure information on chemicals, and requiring companies to substantiate any claims of confidential business information.

It remains unclear whether such an approach would garner the support of Lautenberg or public health groups.

"We're going to continue to push and support Sen. Lautenberg's bill," Rano said. "The process is broken, we all agree on that. There are areas where everyone involved agrees. Maybe that is a way forward, but no matter the way forward, none of that de-emphasizes the need for comprehensive TSCA reform."