Key lawmakers are likely to float legislation next year to address the storage of U.S. nuclear waste, but it's anybody's guess whether a bill will make it to President Obama's desk, a top nuclear industry official predicted yesterday.

Marvin Fertel, the Nuclear Energy Institute's president and chief executive officer, said incoming Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and ranking member Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) are considering nuclear waste legislation, as are House Energy and Commerce Chairman Fred Upton (R-Mich.) and panel member Rep. John Shimkus (R-Ill.).

Although the long fight over the planned Yucca Mountain, Nev., waste repository could be a sticking point, Fertel said he believes a looming court decision could remove that roadblock.

"It's no surprise that the House may want a strong Yucca Mountain section in the legislation, and on the Senate side, there's less interest," he said. "But I think some of that may be helped by the court."

A group of states, utility regulators, local governments and individuals are urging the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to force the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to continue reviewing Yucca Mountain. The agency argues Congress failed to provide enough money to continue reviewing the Yucca application (Greenwire, Aug. 16).

"If the court rules to move the licensing forward, which we do believe it will, it provides a basis for something you could put into legislation of continuing or finishing licensing," Fertel said. "[The court decision] does provide some impetus for a discussion of Yucca on both sides."

Any legislation is likely to mirror recommendations that Obama's Blue Ribbon Commission released earlier this year. Retiring Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chairman Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) introduced a bill that followed the expert panel's proposals, including the call for one or more temporary and permament storage sites and the creation of an independent agency to oversee the siting process.

Although Bingaman's bill failed, the senator said he hoped it would provide a basis for future discussions and legislation. Most industry sources agree that will be the case.

Fertel identified another sticking point for a nuclear waste bill: Bingaman disagreed with his colleagues earlier this year about moving forward with temporary storage sites for waste canisters without first having a repository.

The industry, Fertel said, favors using temporary sites before the government finds a permanent solution. A number of aging reactors will be retiring within the next decade, and utilities will need to move the material off-site, even if a repository is not yet licensed, he said.

The industry is also expecting the Energy Department to release a second wave of funding for small modular reactors early in 2013, Fertel said.

DOE issued an undisclosed portion of its $452 million program last month, despite expressed concerns from Senate Energy and Water Development Appropriations Subcommittee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) that the country still has no waste policy (Greenwire, Nov. 21).

"My guess is that it's going to be a similar solicitation with maybe some additional criteria to try and give innovation a higher standing," Fertel said. "That's a guess."

Fertel was less optimistic about how many nuclear power plants will be built in coming years. New reactors are under construction in Georgia and South Carolina, but the industry doesn't expect to see new projects move forward until the end of this decade because of weak demand and competition from cheap natural gas, he said.

It's unclear how many existing plants reaching their 60-year life span will retire in coming years, but Fertel said the large number of pending retirements of coal-fired plants will likely keep many of the reactors in operation. The NRC has not yet determined standards for plants to continue operating beyond 60 years.

"I think it's too early on how many will go and how many won't," he said. "I don't see a lot of plants shutting down."