4. FISCAL CLIFF:

Governing crisis averted, but political crisis could follow for some lawmakers

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Congress' last-minute scramble to avert tax increases and spending cuts provided plenty of drama on New Year's Day, but the fallout from that vote -- anything but a typical split along party lines -- could stretch into the 2014 election cycle.

Democrats carried the fiscal cliff legislation in the House, providing 172 of the "yes" votes needed to pass the bill, which prevailed 257-167.

While House lawmakers, including leadership on both sides, offered a range of explanations for their votes in the hours following, few of those rationalizations -- ranging from demands for more spending cuts to higher taxes -- hinted toward the political realities members could face in 2014 re-election bids. In the view of many political professionals, Republicans who voted for the measure could be particularly vulnerable to challenges from the right next year.

Among the most notable of the 151 Republicans to vote against the measure were House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia -- who made his opposition known shortly after the Senate passed the measure 89-8 early on New Year's Day -- along with Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy of California and Chief Deputy Whip Peter Roskam of Illinois. They broke with House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) -- and with House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the GOP's vice presidential nominee last year.

Incoming House Democratic Caucus Chairman Xavier Becerra of California, a rising star in his party, also voted against the measure, arguing publicly that the compromise fell short on closing tax loopholes and addressing the deficit.

"In the end, I could not support this short-term fix, which may spawn additional long-term problems, putting off until later the tough decisions on taxes and our nation's debt and deficits, while also ignoring the biggest deficit challenging America's prosperity: a jobs deficit," Becerra said in a statement yesterday.

Much as the House split over the measure, California's 53-member delegation offered a mixed bag of endorsements -- possibly a reflection of the state's new open primary system, in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election, meaning candidates don't necessarily have to appeal to the more extreme elements of their parties.

Among the Golden State House delegation's departing lawmakers, those who either retired or were defeated for re-election, all who were present favored the legislation: Reps. Joe Baca (D), Howard Berman (D), Laura Richardson (D), Brian Bilbray (R), Mary Bono Mack (R), Elton Gallegly (R), Wally Herger (R), Dan Lungren (R) and David Dreier (R). Among the 51 members (there are two vacancies in the delegation), 29 Democrats voted "yes," while 11 Republicans did the same.

While House GOP lawmakers in reliably conservative Southern states like Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee voted unanimously against the measure, all the Republicans voting from New York and Pennsylvania joined their Democratic colleagues in supporting the bill.

In the West, Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson (R) split with his colleague Rep. Raul Labrador (R) to support the bill, a move that could draw the ire of tea party conservatives who have failed to gin up a challenger to Simpson in prior elections.

"They like him in Washington, D.C.," Tea Party Boise President Chad Inman told the website Watchdog.org in December after Simpson said publicly he could support a compromise that included tax increases for the wealthy. "That doesn't mean he's loved here."

In a statement issued Tuesday, Simpson appeared to try to pre-empt such criticisms, calling for additional spending cuts in future legislative debates.

"While I remain a strong proponent of a more comprehensive approach to solving our nation's long-term fiscal crisis, this bill is a critical piece of legislation that lowers taxes for nearly every taxpayer," Simpson said.

Conservative South Dakota Rep. Kristi Noem (R) also voted to pass the fiscal cliff measure, following the lead of South Dakota Sens. John Thune (R) and Tim Johnson (D).

In a statement posted to her campaign's Facebook account, Noem defended her decision, citing a continuation of tax cuts for individuals earning less than $400,000 annually and for couples earning less than $450,000.

"The fiscal cliff vote protected 99 percent of South Dakotans from President Obama reaching into their pockets and taking more of their hard-earned money to subsidize his continued deficit spending," Noem wrote. "As a member of the political party that does not control Washington, DC, I'm here for damage control. I won't stand by and allow this President to bring more uncertainty into this country by preventing farm families from passing on their family businesses and hard-working moms and dads from being able to put food on their tables."

E&E Daily headlines -- Thursday, January 03, 2013

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