A spending-reduction agreement reached over the weekend will mean stiffer competition for every appropriations dollar, and in the current political environment it is unlikely that environmental programs will win many of those battles.

The legislation, which would also allow for an increase in the federal debt limit, would reduce discretionary spending by $910 billion over 10 years, and a bipartisan committee would be tasked before the end of this year with finding $1.5 trillion in additional savings. The bill passed the House last night and the Senate is set to vote on it today.

Those cuts will mean that there are fewer dollars to fund agencies throughout the federal government, and even popular programs may not avoid cuts altogether, lawmakers said.

"A successful government agency or government program in trying to get the appropriations that they need will succeed in getting a little less than a freeze," said Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.). "And others will be cut much more than a freeze. So there's not a lot of room."

Waxman, ranking Democrat on the Energy and Commerce Committee and a lead proponent of funding for environmental programs, said he expects U.S. EPA and the the Interior Department to absorb deep cuts in fiscal 2012 and beyond.

"They're not going to be able to get the funding they need because of the severe limits on appropriated funds," he predicted.

Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), chairman of the Interior and Environment Appropriations Subcommittee, said EPA and Interior must brace for leaner times, as must other federal programs.

"They won't have growing budgets, that's just the reality," he said. "Nobody will have growing budgets."

Still, he said that despite the fact that EPA in particular is not very popular with Republicans -- Simpson routinely calls it the "scariest agency in the federal government" -- he does not expect Appropriations Chairman Hal Rogers (R-Ky.) to make large cuts to his subcommittee's fiscal 2012 bill allocation.

Simpson predicted that Interior and EPA would receive their funding for fiscal 2012 as part of an omnibus appropriations bill to be hammered out in September after Congress returns from August break. He said it might be necessary to pass a temporary spending bill to cover the first part of the year to allow time for further negotiations.

"That's all up in the air until we get this done," he said.

Rep. Jim Moran (D-Va.), the top Democrat on the Interior and Environment Appropriations Subcommittee, said the vote on the debt ceiling will strengthen Republicans' hands in future negotiations over spending and make it more likely that they could pare back funding for environmental programs.

"I think we're going to be involved in another debt crisis, and the Republicans are going to be further empowered because they've won everything they ever wanted in this one," he said.

Environmental advocates were similarly pessimistic about the effects the debt ceiling would have on spending in the future.

"We're likely to start off with a discretionary spending level for Interior that's very low, and has many less opportunities then we would previously have had to increase that dollar figure over the next 10 years, regardless of the needs that are likely to come up throughout the environment-related budget," said Alan Rowsome, who handles conservation funding for the Wilderness Society.

Rowsome said Washington will be cutting spending that could have provided the federal government the flexibility to respond to climate change. While he said he still holds out hope that the final appropriations bill will be somewhat better than the one the House proposed, the debt bill's spending restrictions will severely limit the amount of funding that can be restored for a host of conservation programs.

While they always criticized the House appropriations bill's spending levels as inadequate, environmentalists have set their sights on stripping the bill of its numerous prohibitions on EPA and Interior regulatory programs.

Jane Danowitz, U.S. public lands director for the Pew Environment Group, said yesterday that even if it did not pass the bill as a stand-alone, "the House will have given de facto approval to a bill that includes a long list of anti-environmental provisions."

Joan Mulhern, senior legislative counsel for Earthjustice, said she has been staying in touch with top Democrats, hoping to strip the bill of provisions limiting the Obama administration from continuing with increased oversight of mountaintop removal mining operations, among other issues.

Danowitz is keen on removing a rider aimed at blocking the Interior Department from setting aside 1 million acres around the Grand Canyon from new mining claims.

"The community is out in full force," Danowitz said. "But you have to look at the broad nature of the environmental attacks. You're fighting a multi-front war here."

Even if lawmakers set aside the individual appropriations bill, House leaders are likely to continue efforts to tie the administration's hands, she said.

"I think it would be naive to assume that history is not going to repeat itself," Mulhern said. "One way or another we will be faced with these attacks."

Most vulnerable programs

Conservationists and those familiar with the Interior Department and EPA budgets say they believe some of the first programs to suffer from spending cuts will be land acquisition, capital improvements and grants for state water and conservation projects.

Lands agencies including the Bureau of Land Management, Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service and Forest Service -- which manage about one-third of the land in the United States -- already face rigid set costs to fight wildfires and operate national parks and refuges.

In tight fiscal times, congressional appropriators are likely to draw money away from the popular Land and Water Conservation Fund, which conservationists and the Obama administration argue helps agencies consolidate land holdings, reduce management costs and enhance recreation opportunities.

The funding cuts will likely also hamper the agencies' ability to reduce more than $20 billion in deferred maintenance projects over the coming decade. State grants to improve water infrastructure could also suffer substantial cuts.

Another fixed cost is Indian health services, which is projected to need an additional $300 million each year to adjust for inflation and provide the same level of services to a growing number of patients.

"Any cut means someone somewhere, whether it's the BLM or the [national] refuge system or the Forest Service, someone's not going to be able to do something," said Kristin Brengel, legislative director of the National Parks Conservation Association.

She warned that shriveling funds for projects such as the purchase of state inholdings in Grand Teton National Park in Wyoming could allow parcels to be auctioned off to developers to build new ranches or residential developments. The state's previous governor threatened such a plan if the National Park Service failed to offer fair market value for the lands.

"Clearly it's going to be a tight budget situation for some time to come," said Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.), who served as Interior deputy secretary under the Clinton administration.

He said it will be critical in the coming years for lawmakers to generate new sources of revenue both from new economic activity and also cutting subsidies to the oil and gas sector. Those subsidies should be funneled into conservation programs and renewable energy, Garamendi said.

Reporter Manuel Quinones contributed.