More than a year from Election Day 2012, green groups and Democrats are bracing themselves for what they predict will be an onslaught of campaign spending by the energy industry to bolster Republican campaigns.

They point to record-setting profits from companies like Exxon Mobil Corp., increased lobbying efforts by natural gas drillers and industry's full-throated opposition to President Obama's environmental agenda and actions by his U.S. EPA as signs that industry is revved up going into campaign season.

Combine those with newly lax campaign finance laws encapsulated by the 2010 Citizens United Supreme Court decision, and you have a recipe for oil and gas companies to play an outsized role in the 2012 presidential election as well as congressional races.

"Oil companies have more money than they know what to do with," said Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), a co-sponsor of Democratic campaign finance legislation. "So I expect them to spend freely in these upcoming elections to try to un-elect people who care about the environment and who want to pursue alternative, clean sources of energy."

McGovern and others say the Citizens United decision is key to why industry is positioned to exert more influence in 2012 than it has in previous cycles. The court ruled in January last year that corporations have a free speech right to spend unlimited amounts of money on television and radio ads in support of candidates -- a ruling that campaign finance watchdogs said would open the floodgates to corporate influence on the political system.

The ruling also paved the way for the creation of so-called Super PACs, independent political action committees that can raise unlimited funds from corporations, unions and individuals and use that money for direct attacks on candidates that were previously not permitted.

Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) said the impact of Citizens United was felt in 2010 and tilted the midterms toward the GOP. In 2012, he believes outside groups will have a better understanding of how to take advantage of the court's decision.

"I'm concerned that the perfect storm will be the Citizens United and redistricting after the 2010 election tsunami -- caused by Citizens United," he said. "That's really going to be damaging to our electoral prospects."

Industry record

Cohen has good reason to believe the energy industry will play a significant role in the 2012 campaign landscape and that it will back Republicans.

In 2010, there was a boom in outside group spending after Citizens United, as $190.5 million was spent by conservative groups. Significantly less -- $98.9 million -- went toward liberal issues, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

The oil and gas industry dished out $4.1 million on outside spending -- the tenth most of any industry. The mining industry, meanwhile, spent another $2.8 million. For both groups, that money skewed toward conservative causes and candidates.

Environmental groups, meanwhile, spent about $875,000 on Democratic issues and candidates in the 2010 cycle.

Those figures may not be entirely representative of how much companies actually spent, however. Bill Allison of the Sunlight Foundation, a campaign finance watchdog, noted that most corporations funnel political money to trade associations or other independent groups to avoid alienating customers.

"Their spending is likely to be from the Chamber of Commerce or the American Petroleum Institute," Allison said. "They'll be looking for trade groups so they don't have to be responsible for the ads."

The Chamber of Commerce has already dished out $200,000 on outside spending this cycle. It spent nearly $33 million in the 2010 cycle, the fourth most of any group -- including the congressional campaign committees.

The problem, Allison said, is that reporting requirements for corporations and trade associations are particularly lax.

"You really can't track the activity of corporations," he said.

Allison anticipates that the energy industry may look to the Chamber, or it may look to other innocuously named third party groups to trumpet its positions. "As soon as the ads start popping up," he said, "we'll be able to tell."

The U.S. Chamber, which doesn't wade into presidential races, said it will be fully engaged in the 2012 congressional campaigns.

"This will cover a range of issues, including environmental policies, because voters want to hear what candidates are doing, or not doing, to support our country's job creators," said U.S. Chamber spokesman J.P. Fielder.

Those who stand to benefit from energy industry spending welcome any stepped-up activity and increase in spending.

"The energy production industries in America need to have a louder voice than it's had," said Iowa Rep. Steve King (R), whose district includes ethanol plants. "If they do have a larger voice than they've had in the past, that's going to be good for our economy, it'll be good for the world's ecology. So I hope they speak up."

Enviros consider new tactics

Environmental groups are developing strategies for fighting back against industry money, which they portray as a David vs. Goliath-like struggle. Mike Palamuso of the League of Conservation Voters (LCV) noted that they are used to being up against well-heeled corporate interests.

"The fact of the matter is that we have always been outspent by corporate polluters and Citizens United just takes that to a whole other level," he said.

This cycle, LCV is planning two new tactics. First, it will try to get into races early, as evidence by its endorsement of Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) in the New Mexico Senate race this summer (Greenwire, Aug. 8). That way, Palamuso said, LCV hopes to define the candidates before voters are inundated with campaign ads.

LCV is also counting on mobilizing its volunteers on a grass-roots level to combat corporate television and radio ads.

"In a tight race a strong grass-roots presence can make a difference," he said.

Environmental groups have also taken a page from the corporate playbook and are looking for ways to take advantage of the Citizens United decision. The Sierra Club, for example, has filed documents to create a Super PAC.

Ultimately, McGovern of Massachusetts said the Citizens United decision allows the oil and gas lobby -- already a powerful force on Capitol Hill -- to expand its influence.

"We saw it in the last campaign," he said, "these special interests want to protect their subsidies and loopholes and now they have the ability to do it a lot more directly and freely."