1. CAMPAIGN 2012:
As pipeline controversy rages, Neb. waits for Nelson
Published:
Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson's (D) campaign website is just a single page, featuring a smiling photo of the lawmaker and a note that a "full-featured website is coming soon."
But while you're waiting, you can still click on a link to contribute.
And that pretty much sums up Nelson's 2012 campaign so far.
The senator's campaign committee has raised $4.4 million, and had $3.1 million cash on hand at the end of September, but in a series of interviews in recent weeks, Nelson has declined to commit to seeking re-election.
Nelson downplayed the uncertainty in a brief interview last week, telling E&E Daily that he followed a similar template in 2006 before seeking a second term.
The Nebraska senator did not file for re-election in that contest until Feb. 1 2006, although he had banked about $4 million that cycle.
This time around, however, Nelson weighs his options as a national controversy rages over a proposal to run a transcontinental oil and gas pipeline through his state -- and in the face of bleak approval ratings. A Public Policy Polling survey taken last month showed 55 percent of those polled disapproved of Nelson's job performance, and 36 percent approved.
The survey included 739 Nebraska voters and had a margin of error 3.6 percent.
And while Nelson is not a formal 2012 candidate yet, Nebraska Democrats have sought to shore up his image, spending just shy of $1.25 million on Cornhusker State media buys since July, according to a GOP source who tracks media. The Nebraska Democratic Party did not return telephone calls or an email requesting comment for this article.
Although Nelson spoke to E&E Daily, his campaign did not return a telephone call Friday.
Because he is a rare Democrat in the largely red state of Nebraska, Nelson's seat is a prime target for Republicans hoping to claim control of the Senate. But Nebraska GOPers are more than happy to wait on his decision.
"The longer he keeps his plans to himself, the better it is for the party because we can tap into the undercurrent of animosity that exists against him," Nebraska Republican Party executive director Jordan McGrain told E&E Daily.
Among his potential GOP challengers are state Attorney General Jon Bruning, state Treasurer Don Stenberg -- who lost to Nelson by 2 points in the 2000 contest -- and state Sen. Deb Fischer.
In the Public Policy Polling survey, Bruning, the current frontrunner in the GOP primary, led Nelson by 4 points in a hypothetical matchup, 46 percent to 42 percent, with 12 percent undecided.
But Bruning's favorability ratings were also on the negative side in that poll, in which 38 percent of those surveyed viewed him unfavorably and 32 percent favorably. Thirty percent of those surveyed, however, remained undecided.
Bruning's image took a hit in late August after an Omaha World-Herald report that he had purchased a lakefront home with two executives from the student loan company Nelnet. A year earlier, Bruning sought to waive a $1 million settlement with the company after it was accused of improper business practices but reversed course after criticism.
Bruning defended the August home purchase, saying the two Nelnet executives were longtime friends.
Bruning's campaign did not respond to a questions about Nelson's pending decision.
Bruning leads among GOP candidates in the money race, reporting $1.8 million raised this cycle, and he retained nearly $1.6 million in cash on hand at the end of September.
Stenberg, who has made three prior bids for Senate, had raised $113,000 and reported a little more than $18,000 in cash on hand at the end of September. His campaign also reported more than $35,000 in debts owed.
Fischer's report for the same period showed she has raised $229,000 and retained $206,000 in cash on hand.
GOP candidate and financial adviser Pat Flynn reported raising $139,000 this cycle but reported a negative cash-on-hand balance of less than $550 as of Sept. 30 and nearly $40,000 in debt. Air Force veteran Spencer Zimmerman has not filed a report with the Federal Election Commission.
But Nebraska's Senate primary is not until May, leaving time for other candidates -- including the state's Republican trio of House lawmakers -- to join the race should Nelson opt to drop out.
Pipeline controversy
Regardless of whether Nelson stays in, the Senate race already stands to get whipsawed by the controversy over Keystone XL, the massive pipeline that would cross the sensitive soil of Nebraska's Sandhills on its way from the Canadian oil sands to Gulf Coast refineries. State-level resistance to the $7 billion project has driven a nationwide activist push, but so far Nelson has threaded the needle by echoing Cornhuskers' skepticism about the pipeline route while remaining in favor of the geopolitically secure fuel imports that XL would provide.
"I've never been opposed to the pipeline," Nelson said last week, adding that he hopes this month's special Nebraska legislative session can help coalesce support for a new path that bypasses the Sandhills.
Among Nelson's prospective GOP opponents, however, only Stenberg is openly aligned with his perspective. Two other conservative hopefuls who may have to weigh in officially on the issue -- Bruning and Fischer -- have yet to stake out a specific position (E&E Daily, Oct. 25).
Zimmerman, who appears to operate a Facebook page titled "Build the Keystone Pipeline," which features his image and campaign logos in its profile photos, has voiced support for the project.
"It's going to put pressure on people, particularly on the Republican side," Nebraska's senior House Republican, Rep. Lee Terry, acknowledged of the pipeline special session. Terry singled out Fischer, who hails from the Sandhills, and Bruning, who could be asked for legal advice on legislation related to the pipeline's route.
But the state GOP's McGrain suggested the pipeline may not be a key issue in the Senate race by the time voters are focused on the general election.
McGrain said if Nelson remains in the race, the party will continue to hammer him on his support for President Obama's health care legislation and the "Cornhusker Kickback," an agreement that would have given Nebraska more federal support for its Medicaid program but which was ultimately dropped from the health bill.
"He made the gamble two years ago that by the time he was up for election that the benefits would outweigh the negatives," McGrain said. He confirmed that the state GOP has no ads against Nelson in the works but would expect support from the National Republican Senatorial Committee if it opts to do so in the future.
At the same time, Terry warned Democrats against overconfidence heading into 2012, given Nelson's wavering. "Ben has been telling some [state Democrats] he was running," Terry said. "They seemed fairly confident ... they hadn't been talking about a plan B."
Keystone and the 'bench'
The Nebraska Democratic Party, which hosted a fundraiser for Nelson on Friday, already is putting pressure on Gov. Dave Heineman (R) -- and, by extension, his party's Senate hopefuls -- to take a more active role in the minefield-strewn debate over whether and how to force a rerouting of Keystone XL.
Terry, the House Republican who is among the pipeline's strongest supporters, underscored the sticky wicket it represents for Senate candidates in both parties. "It isn't like 90 percent are against it" in Nebraska, he said, describing vocal critics as "on the fringes, and everybody else is in the middle."
That middle is meaningful not only to Nelson and those who would replace him on any ballot line but also to President Obama, who claimed a single 2008 electoral vote from Nebraska thanks to its method of splitting presidential hauls by congressional districts.
Few in the Cornhusker State may be as attuned to the political import of the Keystone XL project, which Obama's administration could rule on at almost any time before the 2012 election, as Jane Kleeb, chief of progressive advocacy group Bold Nebraska and one of the state's leading anti-pipeline activists.
Kleeb's husband, Scott, was the Democratic nominee for an open House seat in 2006 and in the 2008 Senate race won by Mike Johanns (R). Despite her family's campaign pedigree and her ability to stir up GOP frustration -- "I probably like Nancy Pelosi more than Jane Kleeb," Terry said -- the 38-year-old activist deflected any questions about whether she would enter an open-seat Democratic primary.
Kleeb also parried Republican questions about which Democrat the party might turn to if Nelson opts out. State Sen. Steve Lathrop, who represents the Omaha area, and Kim Robak, formerly Nelson's lieutenant governor, are positioned to come off the party's "very strong bench" for a Senate run, Kleeb said.
"I am under the assumption that he will run until I hear otherwise," Kleeb said in an interview, praising Nelson for "represent[ing] Nebraska really well and vot[ing] in a bipartisan manner."