Second of two parts

Of the 33 Senate races on tap this year, nine are true tossups -- and they are also the likeliest to make a difference in the battle for control of the chamber as Democrats struggle to hold on to their slim majority.

But at least another eight states are hosting Senate races of varying competitiveness in November and bear watching. The latest campaign fundraising figures, which were released last week, helped to clarify some of those contests.

The overall playing field still tilts strongly toward Republicans, who need to flip four Democratic seats to win the majority for the first time since 2006 -- and just three if President Obama loses his re-election bid. Aiding the Republicans further is the fact that they are only defending 10 seats this year, compared to 23 for the Democrats.

Several seats appear safe this year. Among incumbents, Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Tom Carper (D-Del.), Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) and John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) appear unbeatable at the moment.

In addition, Republicans are certain to hold the seat of retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas), though they face a spirited primary with three major, well-funded contenders. And they will hold the Senate seat in Utah, even though veteran incumbent Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) faces an uncomfortable challenge from the right.

Having analyzed the nine tossup races last week (E&E Daily, Feb. 3), here's a look at fundraising in the "second tier" of competitive races:

Arizona

The last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Arizona was Dennis DeConcini in 1988. And indeed, Republicans are favored in the race to replace DeConcini's successor, retiring Sen. Jon Kyl (R).

But despite a strong showing for the Arizona GOP in 2010, the state is slowly trending Democrats' way demographically, and it appears likely that Obama's campaign will target the Grand Canyon State this time around, without native son John McCain on the ballot as the GOP White House nominee.

Still, Rep. Jeff Flake (R) is the frontrunner for now in the Senate race. He raised $608,000 in the last three months of 2011 and ended the year with more than $2.5 million. He faces an increasingly nasty primary race against businessman Wil Cardon, whose year-end fundraising figures were not available in time for publication.

On the Democratic side, former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona is the favorite of the national party establishment, though former state Democratic Chairman Don Bivens is also running. Carmona raised $570,000 in the last three months of 2011 and banked $544,000. Bivens ended the year with $504,000 in the bank after raising $397,000 from Sept. 1 on.

Connecticut

With Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) retiring after four terms, Democrats are favored to send a more reliable Democratic vote to Washington this year, and they have got a spirited three-way primary under way.

Rep. Chris Murphy is the Democratic primary favorite, and his fundraising reflects that. He raised $729,000 in the fourth quarter and banked almost $2.5 million. Former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz raised $273,000 and banked $890,000; state Rep. William Tong collected $158,000 and finished the year with $279,000 on hand.

To the surprise of many political professionals, ex-Rep. Chris Shays outraised wrestling impresario Linda McMahon on the Republican side in late 2011. Shays raised $522,000 and left $317,000 in the bank. McMahon, according to media accounts, took in $327,000, though her cash-on-hand totals had not been reported by press time.

Many Republicans -- and Democrats -- believe that Shays, a well-respected moderate, would be the stronger nominee in the fall. But McMahon, who spent a whopping $50 million of her own as the GOP Senate nominee in 2010, may have the resources -- and the conservative politics -- to prevail over Shays in the primary.

In a state that last sent a Republican to the Senate in 1982 -- and a liberal Republican, at that -- Democrats have the advantage, for now.

Indiana

It's pretty safe to assume that Republicans will hold on to the seat. The main question is: Which Republican will prevail in the May 8 primary?

Sen. Richard Lugar has served in the Senate since 1977. But he is facing a tough challenge on the right from state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who has tea party energy behind him.

Lugar has a huge lead on the financial front. He raised $761,000 in the last three months of 2011 and had $4 million in the bank. Mourdock raised $386,000 and banked $363,000.

Waiting in the wings is Rep. Joe Donnelly (D), who raised $223,000 in the fourth quarter and finished the year with $847,000 in the bank. The conventional wisdom is that Donnelly will be clobbered in November if Lugar is the nominee. But if Mourdock ousts the incumbent in GOP contest, particularly if the primary gets ugly, then Donnelly might have a fighting chance. At least Democrats will have a respectable nominee to take advantage of any dysfunction on the Republican side.

Michigan

Most polls have shown two-term Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) with a relatively comfortable lead, but nothing big enough for Democrats to take for granted. Her lead on the fundraising front is undeniable, however.

Stabenow raised more than $1.2 million between Sept. 1 and Dec. 31 and ended the period with more than $5.8 million on hand. Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra is the Republican favorite, but he is in a pitched battle in the GOP primary with businessman Clark Durant. Hoekstra raised $984,000 in the final quarter and finished with $1.5 million in the bank. Durant raised $618,000 and banked almost $1.2 million.

The Republicans' cause in Michigan may be helped some if Mitt Romney -- son of the late Michigan Gov. George Romney (R) -- winds up as the GOP presidential nominee.

Nebraska

Sen. Ben Nelson's (D) recent decision to retire greatly jeopardized the Democrats' chances of holding the seat -- except on the off-chance that former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) decides to run. Kerrey, who is also a former governor, was last on a ballot in 1994.

Even before Nelson's retirement announcement, three named Republicans were vying for the nomination. State Attorney General Jon Bruning is the establishment favorite, and he has the money to prove it. He collected $410,000 in the last three months of 2011 and finished the year with more than $1.6 million in the bank.

State Treasurer Don Stenberg, who has run unsuccessfully for the Senate three times, took in $252,000 for a year-end $177,000 on hand. But he has been endorsed recently by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), a conservative hero, and that could help. State Sen. Deb Fischer raised $67,000 and banked $208,000.

Some Republicans are hoping Gov. Dave Heineman runs, but he has resisted all entreaties so far.

Barring surprises, Republicans should flip this seat, bringing them ever closer to the Senate majority.

North Dakota

With Sen. Kent Conrad (D) retiring, this is another seat that Republicans are favored to capture. But national Democrats are increasingly upbeat about their likely nominee, former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp. She raised $450,000 in late 2011 and left $412,000.

The Republican favorite, Rep. Rick Berg, who is looking to move up after just one term in the House, raised $563,000 and banked almost $1.4 million. A second Republican, retired Navy SEAL Duane Sand, who has run unsuccessfully for House and Senate several times, raised $181,000 and had $81,000 in the bank.

Ohio

Both parties are closely watching the developing Senate race in this ultimate swing state.

For now, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is the slight favorite, and he has got a slight financial advantage as well. He raised almost $1.6 million between September and December and ended the year with more than $5 million in the bank.

Brown's Republican challenger is state Treasurer Josh Mandel, an intensely ambitious, 34-year-old Iraq War veteran. Republicans think he has the right stuff; Democrats say he is in too big a hurry and makes too many gaffes. But he has certainly proven his mettle on the fundraising front, raising more than $1.4 million in the final quarter of 2011 and ending with almost $4.1 million on hand.

This is one race where the national dynamic may come into play; there is little doubt that both candidates will remain well funded -- and that outside groups are poised to dump in huge amounts of cash -- through Election Day.

Pennsylvania

Republicans have tried to make the case that first-term Sen. Bob Casey (D) is vulnerable this year. But with his moderate record on social issues, he has retained a measure of popularity, and Republicans have been unable to attract a big name candidate into the race.

Casey has proven to be an aggressive fundraiser. He took in $1 million in the final quarter and finished 2011 with almost $4.4 million in the bank.

The leading Republicans are wealthy businessmen. Tom Smith is a former coal company CEO who is mostly self-funding his campaign. He reported a $4.4 million haul for the last three months of the year and had more than $4.4 million in his campaign account. But Steve Welch, a biotech executive, is the favorite of the Republican establishment. He raised $1.1 million -- most of it from his own pocket -- in the final quarter of the year and ended with $1 million on hand. Welch and Smith will spend a lot of money trying to win the primary before they can focus on the incumbent.

West Virginia

Now running for a full term after winning a special election in 2010, Sen. Joe Manchin (D) remains one of the most popular politicians in the state. And he is facing a retread, businessman John Raese (R), who has already run three fruitless campaigns for Senate.

But Raese is very wealthy and will spend liberally on the race. And Republicans will do all they can to tether Manchin to Obama, who is highly unpopular in the state. Still, Manchin remains the heavy favorite, unless something changes drastically.

Through Dec. 31, he had $2 million in the bank after raising $496,000 in the last three months of the year. Raese just entered the race and has not yet filed a campaign finance report.