The world could see the construction of 1,200 new coal-fired power plants in the near future, the World Resources Institute said in a new report highlighting the resource's long-term resilience amid a troubled market.

But despite the 1.4 million megawatts that are proposed to come online -- 76 percent of it in China and India -- a series of recent reports provide a mixed picture about the future of coal as an energy source. At the very least, they substantiate how coal has undergone dramatic changes.

"The next decade will be crucial for countries, especially developing nations, to make the right energy choices," WRI senior associate Ailun Yang wrote in a blog post about the power plant outlook, which the group sees more as a warning than a cause for celebration.

"We hope this working paper can inspire discussions around what should be done to avoid planetary risks while ensuring economic growth," she said.

While the numbers are fluid and could vary depending on market and regulatory trends, the WRI report said the United States could build 36 new coal-fired power plants in the next several years, amounting to more than 20,000 MW of capacity.

WRI's compilation of proposed coal power plants -- obtained by ClimateWire earlier this year (ClimateWire, Sept. 17) but released publicly yesterday -- is in line with a recent International Energy Agency outlook, which predicted that worldwide demand for coal would increase 21 percent through 2035.

Renewables, however, will begin creeping up on fossil fuel dominance, the agency projected.

Yang said, "Many developing countries have come to understand the importance of cleaner energy sources for the long-term sustainability of their development and have put policies in place to encourage energy efficiency and renewable energy."

Coal vs. natural gas

For now, cheap natural gas remains coal's top competitor, coming close to overtaking it as the country's top energy source. In April, both coal and natural gas were producing about 32 percent of U.S. power.

However, coal is expected to rebound somewhat as natural gas prices rise. The wellhead price for natural gas inched up from $1.89 per thousand cubic feet earlier this year to $2.86 in August, said the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which expects coal's share of power generation to bounce back to 40 percent next year.

Another report released yesterday by the research firm GlobalData predicts that the United States will add more than 40,000 MW of gas-powered capacity between this year and 2025, becoming a "leading market" for gas electric generation. It also expects China to boost its gas dependence.

Yet the report is also meant to contradict some of the euphoria about growing U.S. natural gas production. It warns investors and regulators to "proceed with caution," especially on what it calls relatively unproven shale gas plays.

"Although gas is favoured over alternative fossil fuels for its comparatively low carbon emissions output, gas fired plants are still responsible for a substantial amount of pollution," GlobalData said in a news release.

"With emissions targets to meet, GlobalData expects the U.S. government's growing focus on the commercialization of renewable energy generation is to cannibalize a portion of the expanding shale gas sector," the analysts wrote.

Still, coal has been struggling to remain competitive. Ambre Energy Ltd. and Cloud Peak Energy Inc.'s Decker Coal Mine in Montana, for example, has announced possible layoffs, adding to the nationwide tally. Both companies are embroiled in litigation connected, at least in part, to overseas coal export proposals.

This week, the EIA also reported that coal transport costs climbed almost 50 percent between 2001 and 2010. Railroads, which have taken a hit with soft coal market conditions, move about 70 percent of U.S. coal destined for power plants. And transportation costs accounted for about 40 percent of coal's cost in 2010, EIA said.

The impact varies by region, however. While transportation costs went up the most for southern Appalachian coal -- mainly from states like Alabama and Tennessee -- volumes and travel distances are lower compared with the Powder River Basin, for example. Overall, central Appalachia -- including parts of West Virginia and Kentucky -- is seeing the toughest market conditions.

"The resulting assessment shows a stark deterioration in the regional competitiveness" of central Appalachian coal compared with the Powder River Basin, the EIA said, adding that increased PRB transportation costs have slowed Appalachia's problems.

Increased exports

Coal's growth in the developing world is providing some respite for the U.S. industry. The International Energy Agency said global coal trade rose by 13.4 percent in 2010, with the bulk of demand shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

The World Resources Institute noted that, for example, Australia is proposing new mine and port capacity of up to 900 million tons per year. Similar plans are under way in the United States along the Pacific Northwest and the Gulf of Mexico.

Last month, 52 lawmakers sent the Obama administration a letter urging swift approval of various proposed export coal terminals.

"With the largest coal reserves in the world, the U.S. is strategically positioned to participate broadly in the expanding seaborne coal market," wrote the lawmakers, led by West Virginia Republican Rep. David McKinley.

"We cannot squander this opportunity with self-imposed trade barriers from delays and inefficient permit processing of coal export infrastructure projects," they wrote.

But opponents are flooding public hearings on the issue and petitioning regulators to reject the permits. They're not only worried about the effects of increased coal traffic, but say more U.S. exports will fuel the type of growth outlined in WRI's survey.

Earlier this month, the Power Past Coal coalition and the Sierra Club touted a petition with 16,000 signatures urging Oregon Department of State Lands Director Mary Abrams to turn down permits for Ambre Energy's Port of Morrow along the Columbia River.

Andy Harris, a Portland, Ore., doctor and coal terminal opponent, said, "We are relying on Gov. [John] Kitzhaber [D] and Director Abrams to demonstrate strong leadership for the people of Oregon by denying this permit."