NEW YORK -- From a high of nearly $115 per barrel, the cost of a barrel of crude has plummeted to under $100 in the first two weeks of this month, a drop that some attribute to a federal crackdown on speculators.

But commodity traders insist market fundamentals, not political rhetoric or regulators, are behind the sharp drop in crude prices. The renewed strength of the U.S. dollar, a sharp drop in oil imports and rising domestic reserves were all at play, they say.

The downward trend in oil coincided with increased margin requirements at the exchanges -- a move experts say was in response to fears of market volatility and possibly to pressure from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission and threats from Congress and the White House. Lawmakers are pushing regulators to limit futures holdings and take other measures to restrict market speculation.

Many pundits concluded this week that regulators and lawmakers could indeed influence the price of oil and ease pressure on drivers' pocketbooks. But market experts and oil traders say they have mostly ignored the Washington debate over energy speculation.

Instead, they warn that efforts by lawmakers and CFTC to influence the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark oil price index will come back to haunt them.

Margins are capital requirements placed on traders based on a percentage of their total holdings in commodities futures.

Margins are adjusted by exchange operators when they believe too much market volatility is placing operations at risk, but many experts speculate that CFTC may be tempted to exert greater authority over margins if it believes it is helping drive oil prices lower.

"That's just idiocy, because ... the exchanges are on the ground, they know where everything is, they know whose got concentrated positions, they're right there," said Jeff Carter, an independent energy speculator and former board member at CME Group. "If the government were to take it away, they may do something like say, 'We want 50 percent margin'; what happens then is people don't trade, so then you don't have price discovery, and then you have a less liquid market and the cost of goods and services goes up for everybody."

WTI crude closed above $100 a barrel in March, the first time prices traded above that range since late 2008. From then to the beginning of this month, the price steadily ticked upward to about $115 per barrel, fueling concerns of a return to $4- or $5-a-gallon gasoline just in time for the summer driving season.

Today, crude prices have taken a nosedive, with WTI futures trading at $98 dollars a barrel for June delivery at press time.

Traders say the prices could go above $100 a barrel, depending on the a value of the U.S. dollar against the euro.

"We got some strength on the dollar when the weakening of Europe continued and that was the catalyst that finally pushed crude over the edge," said GRZ Trading President Anthony Grisanti. "The dollar seems to have taken control of this market, and I'm kind of looking at that right now, with one eye of course on the data and one eye on the Middle East."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration came out with a string of bearish reports that have also encouraged the sharp drop in oil prices.

Earlier this week, EIA reported that U.S. gasoline inventories expanded for the first time in three months, surprising most analysts, who had assumed a further drawdown. EIA also reported that U.S. crude demand fell by 168,000 barrels a day to the lowest range since June 2009, leading to a buildup in domestic crude stocks by more than 2.6 million barrels and a sharp drop in oil imports.

Officials at CME Group, owner of the New York Mercantile Exchange, took pains to explain that its increased margin requirements were not meant to encourage lower oil prices. They explained to traders that the adjustments to margin requirements were just normal risk management efforts on their part and "aren't a means to move a market one way or another, or to encourage or discourage participation from one kind of market participant or another."

Oil traders at the New York Mercantile Exchange warn against efforts by Washington to restrict access to energy futures trading, and they say regulators are better off leaving control of margins to the exchanges.

"I think it's a slippery slope when you try to control who's in the market and who is not in the market ... and you're asking for problems down the road," Grisanti said.