As temperatures increase, native pine-bark beetle populations in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park could continue to grow, eating away at one of the largest remaining tracts of eastern old-growth forest in the United States. Florida's low-lying Everglades National Park could be devastated by increasingly powerful hurricanes and storm surges and might end up partially submerged due to rising sea levels. More arid conditions in the West would result in larger wildfires more frequently burning paths through such iconic places as Yosemite National Park.

All of these effects and more are in store for the nation's parks and wildlands as a result of climate change, according to a new report from the National Parks Conservation Association.

The study, titled "Unnatural Disaster," also predicts that drastic climate changes would greatly affect Alaska's national parks, where temperatures are rising nearly twice as fast as anywhere else in the country. Eventually, the abundant region could see its caribou population decline and its salmon population leave southern Alaska, as ocean and river warming becomes untenable. The state's melting permafrost is also expected to create drain-like conditions in the soil, causing ponds to dwindle or disappear.

Great Smoky Mountain National Park is one of many parks considered vulnerable to climate change, according to a new report. Photo courtesy of NPS.

And while the effects of global warming may be speculative, possible solutions to the problem are as close as home, according to NPCA, if Americans let go of their gas-guzzling vehicles and inefficient appliances in favor of more environmentally friendly technologies.

To that end, NPCA has partnered with the National Park Service and U.S. EPA to promote the Climate Friendly Parks program, which aims to make national parks "models of climate stewardship and education."

The organizations are hoping that the parks' energy efficiency measures will set an example for citizens and demonstrate some of the changes they can make in their own lives.

Bart Melton, spokesman for NPS's office in the Southeast, said the Great Smoky Mountains National Park -- the most visited national park -- is "a great place for folks to get a handle on what they can do."

"You have the perfect opportunity to show folks two things," Melton said. "One, the effects of climate change; and two, the solutions. Among the solutions, use of more efficient buildings and employment of renewable power -- both of which are featured at the park.

John Morris, a scientist with NPS in Alaska, said the agency just created a new brochure on climate change in national parks to "get the message out there." NPS is also developing training materials for frontline rangers so they "can have an articulate conversation with visitors when questions" regarding climate change arise, he said. The training materials are supposed to be completed later this year.

Under the program, some parks have begun utilizing hybrid vehicles, bicycles and unmotorized boats, while others have focused on using "environmentally preferable" materials and recycling.

From Appalachia to Alaska

Other measures NPS is considering in its battle against climate change are tailored to each region of the country.

In the Appalachian region, the degenerating air quality and declining trout populations could be helped, in part, by investments in clean, renewable energy; retiring the oldest and most polluting coal-fired plants; and using volunteers to monitor the status of natural resources along the Appalachian Trail.

In southern Florida, restoration of ecosystems and helping animal populations migrate or adapt to climate shifts could buy NPS critical time to work to limit climate change and acquire more property farther inland as parts of the park lose their battle against the sea. NPCA also recommends Floridians take advantage of one of the sunshine state's primary natural resources -- solar power.

Climate change could bring species migration -- an important consideration at parks that serve as critical habitat for bison, bears and wolves. But parks also can provide a refuge for wildlife during periods of stressful change, says the National Parks Conservation Association. Photo courtesy of FWS.

Alaska's resource management agencies should account for climate change in their resource management plans, according to the report, so they will be prepared for fluctuations in populations and can predict where important game animals may be found. Because Alaska's emissions are, on average, four times more per capita than in other states, the study also said more stringent controls are needed in the region. It noted that agencies should work with rural villages largely reliant on diesel generators to move them toward more environmentally friendly sources of power, as well as courting their insight on changes in animal populations or in the landscape.

Western states should prepare for even greater fluctuations in water resources, use climate change data to manage forests and fires and toughen controls on air pollution, the report said.

Coastal historic sites like Jamestown Island, Va., home to the first English colony in the United States, should also be prepared for climate change, according to the study. Keeping up with basic maintenance and, at times, deciding to move artifacts to safer locations were cited as important parts of that plan. If the current rate of climate change continues, Jamestown, which just celebrated its 400th birthday, could be underwater before reaching the five century mark.

Melton noted the report's division of geographical areas "really serves to bring home climate change to a regional level for folks."

"When you visit a park, you can understand, hopefully, via our report, that each region is going to see different effects from climate change," he added, noting that identifying regional problems and solutions would help clarify the climate change issue and make it more personal.

Some reasons for optimism

And, despite identifying a number of problems, Melton said the report is also optimistic. The NPCA report noted: "Parks are places where natural communities have a better chance of coping with changing climate."

There is still time to change the course away from worst-case scenarios, Melton said.

"We can halt the effects of climate change if we take action now," he said. "It is not too late to mitigate the effects of climate change. There's a lot of focus on it being a dead-end road [but] if we get to 1990 [emissions] levels by 2050, there's a real good chance of heading off the issue at the pass."

Getting there, however, will require funding -- and NPS already needs $5 billion to $10 billion for backlogged maintenance repairs.

Although the fiscal 2008 budget is still being hammered out in Congress, the Bush administration and both chambers have advocated increasing NPS's funding as it prepares for its centennial in 2016.

Under the House Interior and Environment Appropriations bill, the National Park Service would get $2.52 billion from the House, a $228 million increase over fiscal 2007. That allocation would provide initial matching funds for a Bush administration initiative to provide NPS with $1 billion over the next 10 years that would be matched by additional private donations.

NPCA has been a strong advocate for more funding for NPS.

"Increasing funding for the Park Service is one of many approaches required for" our efforts to be successful, Melton said. "Our work to make sure the Park Service is funded ... walks hand in hand with our work on climate change."

Click here to view a copy of the report.