The Canadian province of Alberta is facing a looming water crisis because of the quadruple threats of climate change, population growth, agriculture and commerical development, a new report from a sustainability group warns.

In "Allocating Our Water," Alberta-based Water Matters says that the province's current system for managing water is outdated and unable to handle the possibility of future shortages. That raises questions about how the province will handle projected growth in its oil sands region and in major population centers such as Edmonton and Calgary, the group says.

"We're already seeing cases of cities nearly running out of water," said Julia Ko, an analyst at the organization. "With climate change, this is only going to get worse."

Much of the challenge stems from settlement patterns and a water management system that was established a century ago -- when the climate was unusually wet with precipitation, according to the report.

Alberta holds the fastest-growing population and economy in Canada. Production in its oil sands region is projected by industry to double by 2020 and to move to an extraction method that requires more water per barrel of oil than current mechanisms.

1894 water law may need changes

"If the oil sands grow as expected, it is possible they will eventually consume more water than the entire urban population of the province," said Lars Hallstrom, a resource economics and environmental sociology professor at the University of Alberta, at a recent event in Washington, D.C., at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

Eighty percent of the province's population lives in the south, which contains 20 percent of the water supply, the report notes. Additionally, the province distributes water through an 1894 program known as "First in Time, First in Right," or FIT-FIR, which grants access to water through licenses according to who arrived in the region first.

The system, similar to that in the western United States, was designed to encourage agriculture in the province's south a century ago. The problem now, Ko said, is that most of the water available for human use belongs to a small group of people, particularly farmers and irrigation districts. Overall, agriculture draws 44 percent of available water.

In the South Saskatchewan River Basin, for example, 75 percent of the water is allocated to 13 irrigation districts.

Ko said that means that more than 1 million people in that basin, predominantly in cities, would have rights to 11 percent of the water. Most of the province's supply comes from rivers and lakes.

In recent years, senior holders of water licenses have come to "gentlemen's agreements" during severe droughts, allowing junior holders to withdraw water to address shortages. But the report notes that there are early signs of strain.

Last year, Alberta Environment turned down a request from the town of Okotoks to withdraw more water than its license allowed from the Sheep River. The Municipal Government Board of Alberta also overturned an appeal by the town to block development of a new housing community that Okotoks said would strain water supplies.

Hallstrom said that the province also has an employment issue. There is a possible shortage of more than 4,000 wastewater and drinking water operators in the next 20 years, he said. "These are quite literally the people who make sure that the water that comes out of your tap in a rural community is in fact safe," he said.

Climate change reduces snowmelt

Climate change poses a threat by reducing the spring snowmelt runoff from the eastern Rocky Mountains that feeds Alberta's irrigation system, said David Schindler, a biological sciences professor at the University of Alberta. He pointed to prior peer-reviewed research showing that summer flows in the South Saskatchewan River have declined 84 percent since the early 20th century. Climate change could cause even lower flows, he said.

There are several options for reform that would go a long way in changing the dynamic, Water Matters said.

First, the province needs to do a thorough inventory of existing licenses to determine where water is in the first place, Ko said. There are old licenses from 50 or more years ago, covering places such as abandoned farms, that would help identify potentially new sources of water, she said.

There should be an update to the province's Water Act, so that in-stream flows are considered an enumerated use under the law. That means that the province would have to recognize that Alberta's rivers should have a certain volume level.

"If that was contained in the law, it would force policy changes," Ko said. She said Canada also needs to adopt policies that cover the western United States, including the idea that water can only be withdrawn if it has a "beneficial use."

She said there also needs to be more consistency in drought planning, so that it is not forbidden to water lawns in one city while it is allowed in another.

Free water may be outdated

Others are calling for a dramatic revamp of FIT-FIR. Hallstrom said there are growing discussions among experts about water trading between license holders, to ensure a more even distribution of water. The province -- and Canada as whole -- needs to stop thinking about water as a free commodity that will always be there, he said.

Many communities in Alberta are not charged monthly for their water, he said, and others do not have water meters, he said. "Eventually, there will be a crisis, and it will force change," he said.

He praised Alberta Premier Alison Redford for "moving water up" on the agenda and trying to get people in multiple agencies "out of silos."

Redford's government has floated the idea of consultations on water with the public. That may sound vague but can be meaningful, Ko said. Because the provincial government can get legislation through quickly, public forms can immediately be followed by regulatory action, Ko said.

This week, Alberta Environment spokeswoman Jessica Potter said, "There will be public engagement, I just don't have a firm timeline for when."

Yet Schindler, the University of Alberta biologist, said he was skeptical.

There has not been movement to shift the Alberta Water Research Institute away from governance by some oil industry executives, a change made last year, he said. The institute is now overseen by the government-backed research group Alberta Innovates. Albertan officials have said it made sense to move different research programs under one umbrella.

With the change, Schindler said he was concerned the institute would not do as much climate-relevant research on how drought affects groundwater and the water supply. The research is important for driving policy, Schindler said.

"Redford is still on her honeymoon," Schindler said. "We'll see what they mean by 'water consultations.'"