Last year, the Canadian government said its existing policies took the country 25 percent of the way toward meeting emission targets by the end of the decade. This year, the government said Canada suddenly is half of the way there.

The rosy upward prediction came yesterday in the second annual emissions trends report from Environment Canada, an arm of the national government. The government said new accounting of carbon reductions from land-use changes, revised greenhouse gas numbers for 2010 and effective policies in the transportation and electricity sectors accounted for the country's improved trajectory toward its 2020 emissions goals.

Environmentalists slammed the government for using what they termed "disingenuous" accounting methods and for taking credit for emission reductions that they said mainly existed on paper. Environment Minister Peter Kent, on the other hand, said the national government's policies clearly are working.

"I can't say I'm surprised by the results. The [Prime Minister Stephen} Harper government has been working hard to reduce emissions, and this has helped set the stage for the progress we've achieved this year," Kent said in a speech in Ottawa.

Under the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, Canada pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, a number identical to U.S. policy. Since then, the country has been following a "sector by sector" approach to cutting emissions, rather than implementing a national carbon price.

Yesterday, Environment Canada reported that under existing programs and regulations, the country is set to emit 720 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2020. That is lower than last year's projection of 785 million metric tons. To meet the end-of-decade target, the government must get the number down to 607 million.

The biggest source of the drop from last year resulted from new calculations established under a framework during international climate negotiations last year in Durban, South Africa.

Logging projections have sudden drop

The international blueprint established in South Africa allows countries to establish a baseline for 2013 to 2020 of how much forest harvesting they intend to do through logging and then count emissions reductions if the logging is lower than expected. The idea was to allow countries to account for carbon storage in trees that no longer will be cut down.

Canada said yesterday that it had found 25 million metric tons of new emission reductions this way, because its tree "harvests will be below the average historical level used in estimating the reference level" for 2013 to 2020.

Christian Holz, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, criticized the government for not clearly outlining why there was a change in the projections for logging. He said Canada's original submission on the issue to the Durban conference stated that logging levels would remain constant from 2013 to 2020.

"The numbers are suspect," Holz said. The government needs to clearly outline why it has changed the projections for its trees in such a short period of time, he said.

Another reason the emission numbers are lower is that the government revised numbers for 2010. Last year, the government was using estimates for emission numbers for that year and the actual figures revealed lower greenhouse gas emissions, Holz said.

That means the improvement has little to do with government policies, he said. The dynamic does not change the fact that the government has no plan to meet the other half of its target by 2020, he said.

The report notes that greenhouse gas estimates for the oil and gas sector, and buildings, are higher than last year's estimates. Fueled by rapid growth in Alberta's oil sands region, the oil and gas sector's emissions will be 28 percent higher in 2020 than they were in 2005, the government said.

Parliament audit projects emissions rise

Earlier this year, an audit from Parliament's watchdog said that the country likely had run out of time to meet its 2020 target and could be 7.4 percent above 2005 emission levels that year, rather than 17 percent below (ClimateWire, May 9).

Environment Canada did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication about the methodology on the forestry emissions.

The report states that its projections "underwent a peer review by a panel of experts" in 2010 and 2011.

It also notes emission progress with efficiency measures and the electricity sector. Ontario, for example, is planning a phaseout of its coal plants by 2014.

Overall, emissions from electricity generation in Canada are expected to decline 34 percent from 2004 levels by 2020, partially because of provincial policies. Transportation, which accounts for about a quarter of the country's greenhouse gas emissions, will see its emissions go up slightly by 2020, but the growth will be much lower than historical trends because of greater fuel efficiency measures from the federal government, the report says.

Additionally, Kent said that "we have already been talking with the provinces, territories and industry about the oil and gas sector" and that he expects emission regulations for oil and gas to be ready in 2013.