The drought that has gripped much of the central United States this summer may be leveling off, according to federal forecasters.

Recent rains in the Midwest have helped combat unusually dry conditions in some areas. The latest edition of the U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, shows 61.77 percent of the continental United States is in drought, a dip of about 0.7 percentage point in the last week.

Click to view the U.S. Drought Monitor's animation of the drought over the last 12 weeks as areas move from "extreme" to "exceptional" dryness. Photo courtesy of the University of Nebraska, Lincoln.

Ed O'Lenic, operations branch chief at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, rejected the notion that the drought -- the worst in decades -- was "easing." But he said it appeared to be "leveling off."

"What we're seeing is things are no longer going downhill as fast as they were," O'Lenic said.

But that is cold comfort to communities in Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma. Drought continues to intensify in a band that stretches across those four states.

Just more than 63 percent of Kansas is now experiencing "exceptional" drought, compared with just about 38.6 percent a week ago. The story is similar in Missouri, where exceptional drought now covers 35.51 percent of the state, compared to 13.89 percent a week ago; Oklahoma, which saw a jump from 16.03 percent to 38.86 percent; and Nebraska, which saw exceptional drought balloon from 3.46 percent to 22.53 percent of its land area.

Bad farm news will continue into the fall

NOAA's forecasters expect the drought to linger into the fall. The Climate Prediction Center's seasonal drought outlook projects the drought will persist or intensify in a wide swath of the United States, stretching from Illinois in the east to California in the west, and from North Dakota to northern Texas.

Drought is likely to ease in the Southwest, southern Texas, the Great Lakes and the Southeast, forecasters said. But that relief is likely to come too late for most farmers and ranchers suffering from high temperatures and dry conditions this summer.

Drought will reduce the nation's corn yield by 13 percent and soybean yield by 12 percent, the Agriculture Department said last week.

"What we are seeing are a lot of fields that are a total loss," said Jim Angel, Illinois' state climatologist and a professor at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.

Some farmers are cutting crops for silage or scrambling to harvest what remains weeks ahead of schedule. Others are letting their corn and soybeans wither in the field, counting on crop insurance payouts.

Meanwhile, poor pasture conditions and limited hay supplies have prompted many ranchers to sell off some of their herds. In response, the White House announced a plan last week to buy $170 million worth of meat to shore up ailing U.S. livestock producers.

Record-breaking year seems likely

Angel said there is still a chance soybean crops could recover in the next few weeks. Temperatures in the Midwest have dropped to the 80s in many areas, down from weeks of blazing days that peaked in the 100s. If the region gets more rain in the next few weeks, soybean yields could climb.

"Soybeans can hang in there a little longer than corn in dry weather, but they still need rains to finish out," he said. "Things are maybe looking a little brighter with the soybean crop at this point."

But lingering drought could spell problems this fall, when Midwestern farmers plant winter wheat crops. And drought has reduced water levels on the Mississippi River, hampering barge traffic that normally transports grain harvests.

Meanwhile, the first seven months of 2012 are the warmest ever in the continental United States, where record-keeping began in 1895.

Jake Crouch, a climatologist at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, said there's roughly a 2-out-of-3 chance this year will end up breaking the record for warmest year in the lower 48 states.

If temperatures from August to December hew to the 20th-century average, 2012 will still set a new record, he said. The continental United States has been hotter than the 20th-century average for the past 14 months.