The state of Virginia needs to act now to prepare for rising sea levels to avoid catastrophic flooding in the coming decades in its Tidewater region, a new report from the College of William & Mary warns.

More than 40 percent of Virginia's Accomack and Northampton counties, for example, could face saturation with a "moderate" level of sea-level rise of 1.5 foot, combined with a 3-foot storm surge, researchers from the college's Virginia Institute of Marine Science found. Virginia Beach could witness 289 miles of flooded roadways and a quarter of its land would be hit with flooding under the modeled scenario, the institute said.

"We have a problem, but it is not an insurmountable problem," said Molly Mitchell, a marine scientist at the institute and a co-author of the report, produced in conjunction with Old Dominion University, Wetlands Watch and various state and regional agencies.

The study came as a result of a joint resolution of Virginia's Legislature last year that was mired in controversy.

Initially, the name of the General Assembly study included the words "sea level rise," but the phrase was taken out amid objections from climate skeptics and many Republicans, according to William "Skip" Stiles, executive director of Wetlands Watch, who participated in the report.

The Virginia Tea Party slammed the "sea level rise" study, before the name change, as being "ridiculous," according to The Virginian-Pilot. The new study is now known as the "Recurrent Flooding Study for Tidewater Virginia."

Regardless, it is important for policymakers in Richmond to consider the findings because of the 10- to 20-year planning horizon for much of the state's infrastructure and buildings, said Mitchell.

One thing state lawmakers can do immediately to prepare the state for rising seas, she said, is clarify legal uncertainty under the "Dillon Rule," she said. The rule -- a legal framework in Virginia -- dictates that municipal governments only hold power specifically granted to them by the state.

That puts local areas at risk of lawsuits if they change things such as zoning regulations in floodplains without state approval.

The report notes, for example, that local leaders at a meeting last year said they were concerned that recent changes to state health codes allow engineered septic systems to now be located in flood-prone areas. "However, the localities feel that they do not have the authority to deny development," the report states.

Wanted: a state-local dialogue

Mitchell said the state could clarify confusion with the Dillon Rule by requesting an "expert review" of the legal authority of local governments. "It would help tremendously to get a dialogue going between state and local officials" about the rule in regard to flooding, she said.

Another issue is data, considering that many localities do not know how often, and where, flooding occurs in their jurisdictions, said Mitchell.

There is no uniform database on the topic, so local leaders are relying on word of mouth, repetitive loss records from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and road closure information from the Virginia Department of Transportation.

"It makes it difficult to plan ahead," she said.

Consolidation of information from emergency managers, who often know the flooding hot spots, would help build a database, Mitchell said. It also will be important to conduct cost-benefit analyses of various flood-control strategies to prioritize projects, she said.

Additional scientific research -- funded by the state and federal government -- also would help fine-tune projections for rising seas, she said.

Stiles said Virginia should follow Florida and other states and devise a uniform future estimate for sea-level rise, based on scientific projections. Southeast Florida officials, for example, have range numbers for the year 2060 that are being incorporated into urban planning decisions (ClimateWire, Jan. 10, 2012).

Concerns about lawsuits

Not having an estimate makes it tough for public works departments, and engineers, to design infrastructure such as pipes and stormwater drains outside of "state-vetted guidelines," Stiles said. "People are worried about lawsuits," he said.

Many scientists agree that seas could rise globally by roughly 3 feet by 2100. Much of Virginia sits in a hot spot, where seas have been rising three to four times faster than average, partially because of land subsidence, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The institute also examined various flood-control measures, ranging from rolling easements to flood walls in use around the world, with an analysis of how they might work in various parts of Virginia.

In one example, the researchers said raising roads may be an option in rural areas, where stormwater drainage essentially consists of ditches. That eliminates the need for dealing with much additional, complicated infrastructure.

On the other hand, much of Virginia's waterfront property is privately owned, making it tricky to implement "soft" engineering measures being tried in other states, such as beach dune restoration, to protect against storms, the report notes.

It is not clear how much the report will be considered by state lawmakers after its formal release to the Legislature last week.

"Until the Navy and the Hampton Roads region uses their political leverage, I'm not sure how much can get done at the state level," said Jay Fisette, vice chairman of the Arlington County Board in Virginia.