Water challenges linked to climate change will increase the risk of political tensions and even violence in countries that are strategic to the United States in the coming decades, according to a new report called "Global Water Security."

The report was commissioned by the State Department and carried out primarily by the Defense Intelligence Agency to evaluate the impact global water issues will have on U.S. national security interests.

It was released on World Water Day in March in conjunction with the new U.S. Water Partnership (USWP) to improve water security (ClimateWire, March 22).

Experts on water issues and leaders in the National Intelligence Council and Department of State gathered yesterday to discuss the findings of the unclassified report in the first public forum held at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

The report concludes that while it is unlikely there will be wars over water in the next 10 years, water challenges -- including drought, floods and poor water quality -- could exacerbate regional tensions and could increase the risk of instability and potentially state failure in countries relevant to the United States' global policy interests.

Seeds for 'serious conflict'

"What will happen is that water issues, in combination with other issues -- poor political governance, economic inequality, perception of environmental degradation that's not taken care of by the state ... could trigger a social disruption, maybe protests, maybe riots," said Richard Engel, a retired Air Force major and director of the environment and natural resources program at the National Intelligence Council.

"Ultimately, in some states where they do not have the robust state systems, state failure is possible," Engel said.

The report identifies seven "strategically important" basins and evaluates them based on the resilience of the institutions that govern them. The Amu Darya, one of the largest rivers in Central Asia, and the Brahmaputra in Central and South Asia were found to have "inadequate" levels of management capacity.

"In a region as vital as South Asia, if there were to be conflict driven at least in part by water scarcity or by perceptions of water scarcity, we're talking about a serious conflict here," said Ellen Laipson, president and CEO of the Stimson Center, a nonprofit group dedicated to issues of national security.

"We're not talking about a few farmers along the border; we're talking about something that could escalate into something of grave consequence for the international community," Laipson said.

One major concern is that water could be used as leverage, said Engel. Means of leverage could include one state developing its water resources and denying another access, or one state protesting against the funding of another state's major water infrastructure project.

Water could also be used in acts of terrorism. That could manifest as a direct attack on vital water infrastructure or in a case where the state manipulates water resources for population control. According to Engel, such acts are expected to take place in the relatively near future.

Related food problems

The report also identifies mounting concerns over freshwater depletion caused by energy and agricultural production.

Approximately 68 percent of fresh water is used for agriculture on a global basis. At a fraction of the cost of residential and industrial applications, water for agriculture must be priced effectively in order to solve the world's water challenges, Engel said.

As the effects of climate change become more severe in the coming decades, managing water issues will become increasingly challenging.

"As we look forward, it was the economic development and population growth that were the most significant drivers [of instability] as compared to climate change," said Engel. "But if you want to look further out beyond 2040, that might change significantly."

The United States is well-positioned to help overcome many aspects related to water issues, he added. It can provide hydrological modeling, for instance, or encourage open and sustainable markets for agricultural products. It also has the capacity to develop legal institutions and institutional arrangements to ensure water is shared around the world.

The State Department will next seek to hold working group sessions with other countries to address the issues identified in the report, said Kerri-Ann Jones, assistant secretary of State for oceans and international environmental and scientific affairs. It will also look for feedback from American civil society groups on how to achieve progress, she said.

Alexandra Cousteau, a water expert and filmmaker for the National Geographic Society, said she hopes the unclassified report will serve as a launchpad to further the dialogue on water issues to include policy, education, aid and other areas of human development.

"We hear a lot about the global water crisis, and part of it is a very immediate human tragedy that we have to address," she said.

"But we don't talk enough about the coming human tragedy if we don't look at these river systems and maintaining their integrity so they can continue to provide us with enough water where we need it, when we need it, and water that is of sufficient quality to support healthy communities."