AGRICULTURE:
Soybeans suffer in drought but may escape corn crop's fate
ClimateWire:
Much like the devastated corn crop, soybean crops have dwindled during the ongoing drought in the Midwest.
But recent rains in the hardest-hit states and a longer maturation period have harbored some relief for one of the biggest crops in the country.
"There were still casualties with the soybean areas," said Alex Sosnowski, an expert senior meteorologist with Accuweather.com. "Some tracts of farmland did not get enough rain."
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| Track the six-week cycle of a record U.S. drought. Click the map to watch the animation. Map courtesy of the University of Nebraska, Lincoln. |
"In general, things have improved in portions of Indiana, Illinois, on into the upper Midwest," he added. The Great Plains, which roll over Texas and Oklahoma, are still suffering but likely will see rain in the coming weeks. El Niño, the weather pattern driven by ocean water temperatures, is expected to bring storms across the center of the country.
Soybeans also benefit from a longer critical period -- the time in which it needs a good rain to survive -- than corn. "Soybeans have a longer period of maturity and have a chance to recover," said Sosnowski.
The Agriculture Department's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released this morning predicted an average of 123.4 bushels per acre for this year -- a 15 percent decrease in corn yields from previous estimates, and the lowest corn yields in 17 years. The report predicts a decrease in soybean yields by 5.4 bushels per acre fewer than last year -- a 13 percent decrease.
"We do have concerns about the crop," said Craig Huss, chief risk officer for Archer Daniels Midland Co., at the company's fourth-quarter earnings meeting -- although the concern is less than it is for corn.
"We need rain across the country, obviously, to finish this crop off," he said. Archer Daniels Midland is one of the largest agricultural companies in the world and a major grower of soybeans and corn for animal feed, ethanol and biodiesel.
Soybean futures hit record highs last month amid the drought, topping $17 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Potential for international havoc
In a tight year, soybeans have the potential to wreak havoc on local economies. China could be especially dependent on North and South American imports. The country has developed a growing appetite for soybean feed to nourish its livestock operations, as more and more Chinese increase the amount of meat -- especially pork -- in their diet.
Soybean imports by China are expected to reach 61 million tons next year, according to the Agriculture Department's Economic Research Service.
There are relatively few replacements for soybeans, making China's demand quite inelastic, in economic terms, said Darin Newson, senior analyst with Telvent DTN, a publisher of agricultural reports.
However, China is in a better situation for soybean supplies than most countries, said Mark Ash, an economist at the Economic Research Service. Advanced purchases before the recent price spike, as well as ample reserves, allow the country "some breathing space."
In global markets, South America and North America benefit from having reverse seasons to provide a year-round crop to the world. This year, however, severe drought in Argentina and Brazil during their fall harvest let out a meager crop.
High soybean prices have encouraged Brazilian and Argentine farmers to plant more acres this year, and if conditions are benign, it will produce a bumper crop. But it leaves the world with a gap until then.
"We would be looking at very tight stocks from September to March," Newsom said.
But once the South American harvest rolls around, "assuming their yields return to normal, they should have record large crops in early 2013," Ash said.
Soybean acreage in the United States increased from 75 million acres last year to 76 million acres this year, with expectations for 44 bushels of soybeans per acre. To compare, corn acreage rose from 92 million acres to 96 million acres. Some of those acres came from land previously growing wheat or cotton, as well as new acres in fringe areas.
