Two trade groups issued a fresh warning yesterday that the federal government could halt most vessel traffic on a key stretch of the Mississippi River by mid-January because of low water levels, jeopardizing billions of dollars of trade.

In a revised forecast of the economic impact of drought, the American Waterways Operators and Waterways Council Inc. said that in January alone, reduced traffic on the waterway could affect 7.2 million tons of shipped commodities such as corn and soybeans valued at $2.8 billion. The disruption in supply chain activity in Mississippi River states threatens more than 8,000 jobs and $54 million in wages and benefits, the groups said.

The drought in the Midwest may further constrict barge traffic in the Mississippi River. Photo by Mike Willis, courtesy of Flickr.

They said that revised weather and water forecasts from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers last month for the river near Thebes, Ill., signal that river traffic would come to an effective halt between Jan. 5 and 15, earlier than expected.

In that scenario, the Coast Guard would not ban traffic outright but would be forced to issue new rules on barge depth to ensure navigation safety in low waters that most operators cannot meet, with the result being a commercial shutdown of the river.

"Anxiety is very high, particularly among our smaller operators," said Ann McCulloch, a spokeswoman for the American Waterways Operators, the national trade association for the U.S. tugboat, towboat and barge industry. The two groups are concerned about a critical stretch of river used for shipping between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill.

Under congressional rules, the Army Corps is charged with maintaining a 9-foot channel in the Mississippi River for navigation. Most towboats cannot maneuver at a shallower depth, which requires them to reduce cargo, according to McCulloch.

The trade groups predicted that the Coast Guard -- in order to maintain safety -- likely would issue new rules as early as this week shifting the required 9-foot draft to an 8-foot draft. Draft refers to the depth a vessel sinks into the water.

In a statement released yesterday, the Army Corps disagreed with the groups' findings, saying it expected maintenance of the 9-foot channel.

Army Corps remains optimistic

"We are cautiously optimistic," said Bob Anderson, spokesman for the Mississippi Valley Division of the Army Corps.

The corps' ongoing work removing impeding rock formations near Thebes, Ill., will create a 1.5- to 2-foot deeper channel in that area by Jan. 11, he said in an interview. Current forecasts of a possible worst case, "no rain" scenario for the river come later, closer to Jan. 15, he said.

Anderson did not rule out the possibility of new rules on barge depths from the Coast Guard but emphasized that it is "not likely."

The outcome will depend on a combination of factors, including whether portions of the river north of St. Louis freeze and reduce water flow for several days, he said.

The Army Corps also is watching closely whether a predicted warming trend in the region comes to fruition, melting snowpack along the way and creating new water supplies. Some rain also was predicted this weekend, Anderson said.

Further, rock removal near Thebes is on schedule, or ahead of pace, he said. The rock removal is necessary, since formations are preventing dredging in the area, he said.

While a shutdown is not impossible, there would have to be a "tremendous combination" of bad luck involving several of those factors, he added. More will be known later in the week, after National Weather Service predictions, he said.

Concerns about agriculture

An official with District 8 of the Coast Guard said there are no immediate announcements planned on the issue.

McCulloch said a shutdown of river traffic would hit three sectors -- agriculture, coal and petroleum -- particularly hard. The agriculture sector, for example, relies on fertilizer shipped from south to north on the river for spring planting, she said.

The new numbers build on a report from the two groups last month projecting that Louisiana and Illinois would take the largest industry and job hits because of the drought's effect on the river. Much of the U.S. corn and wheat crop is exported via the Gulf of Mexico.

The groups issued a fresh call yesterday for a release of water from the Missouri River to increase Mississippi River navigation, an idea rejected last month by the Army Corps. They say a small release of 1 percent of the current storage in the Missouri River reservoir system would alleviate the Mississippi River's woes.

The idea is opposed strongly by many governors, farmers and water-dependent businesses, considering that the Missouri River also has been hit by drought (ClimateWire, Dec. 9, 2012).

Yesterday, Anderson said new releases from the Missouri River are not under reconsideration "at this time."

"The people who live along the Missouri would not take kindly to us using the river now as the short-term solution to something that could be a long-term problem," he said.