A decline in coal-fired generation in industrialized countries was more than wiped away by the massive increases in the developing world, the International Energy Agency's lead China expert said yesterday.

In China alone, Jonathan Sinton noted, 600 gigawatts of planned new coal capacity through 2030 exceeds the current capacity of the United States, the European Union and Japan. Meanwhile, he noted, renewable energy -- while growing fast -- still barely register as a blip on a chart of the country's energy matrix.

If countries have any hope of meeting international pledges to keep concentrations of greenhouse gases at 450 parts per million, Sinton argued yesterday at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, carbon capture and storage (CCS) development in China will be key.

"As goes China, so goes coal and as goes coal, so goes climate," he said. "CCS has to be a key abatement technology in order to reach the 450 [ppm] scenario. It's absolutely essential."

In the aftermath of a U.N. climate change conference in Mexico last months, countries have entered a mode of focusing on on-the-ground strategies to reduce carbon emissions. Bilateral and multilateral partnerships are expected to play a greater role in the coming months, and work between the United States and China on energy cooperation will be a top priority when Chinese President Hu Jintao arrives in Washington next week.

Precisely what might be accomplished in the realm of CCS is unclear, but Sinton -- along with David Hawkins, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council's climate center -- described joint CCS work as a mandatory element of environmental policy.

Half-dozen pilot programs in the works

"If we are going to have a robust climate protection program, we need to have CCS as part of the portfolio," Hawkins said. Noting that current emissions trends are "incompatible with protecting the planet," he said, "The reality is ... world leaders in countries that have a lot of coal have difficulty turning their back on that resource."

Pointing to a white paper the environmental nonprofit put out in December, Hawkins said China is home to more than 1,600 large CO2 point sources. The country also has nearly 400 high-concentration sources, which lower the cost of capturing CO2, he said.

At the same time, there are about a half-dozen current or potential pilot programs -- with the leaders of China's largest coal and power companies Shenhua Group and Dongguan Power "very interested in getting a foothold on CCS technologies for their respective companies."

"They're taking it very seriously," Hawkins said. "We're going to see these two companies driving CCS technology in China and perhaps the world."

Both speakers recommended direct Western and U.S. involvement in Chinese CCS demonstrations as well as technology transfer -- something that could be difficult to convince Congress to approve.

Meanwhile, yesterday, according to a Reuters report, the Chinese government announced it will impose binding emission targets on its regions. The targets are aimed at helping the country meet its carbon intensity goal of cutting CO2 by 40 to 45 percent for every unit of economic output in the next decade.