President Obama's conspicuous plug for natural gas drilling at this week's post-election press conference lifted industry spirits, but it doesn't change the tightrope so many energy companies now walk as they try to profit off the U.S. gas boom.

Executives from Exxon Mobil Corp. to Dynegy are feeling the heat from investors concerned about headaches and uncertainty caused by slumping U.S. natural gas prices. The nearly 18-month period of cheap gas is the product of an onshore drilling boom in the nation's vast gas-rich shale basins.

"Supply is simply out of control," said Pavel Molchanov, an energy analyst at Raymond James & Associates. "The glut could alleviate itself, but too many companies are chasing production growth without concern for profitability."

Obama referenced natural gas twice speaking to reporters on Wednesday, an overture that many in the gas industry had been waiting for. The administration has remained decidedly agnostic about tapping into expanding domestic gas supplies to fuel the economy and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Obama cited gas, energy efficiency and electric cars together as areas of potential agreement among Republicans and Democrats. "We've got, I think, broad agreement that we've got terrific natural gas resources in this country," Obama said. "Are we doing everything we can to develop those?"

One result of the onshore U.S. gas boom stretching from Texas to Pennsylvania has been natural gas prices resting at or below $4 per million British thermal units for months -- for so long investors are getting used to it.

The price of natural gas has long been the soft underbelly of the American economy. Gas is a main ingredient for chemical makers and supplies 20 percent of electricity generated in the United States. The fuel also produces lower carbon dioxide emissions than burning coal and oil. Yet regardless of how long it remains at low prices, gas still has a storied history of capricious price swings and supply and demand issues. While it's actively traded on commodity futures exchanges, predicting the ups and downs of prices can be a fool's errand.

Boardroom battles and messy mergers

For energy companies with mergers and acquisitions either ahead of or behind them, correctly anticipating the direction of gas prices has become an increasingly tricky hurdle as corporate managers sell their plans to wary shareholders.

Billion-dollar investments in power plants and gas fields rely on expectations that gas production will be profitable and prices will compete with cheap coal. A clash of opinions on natural gas and coal prices has led to bruising boardroom fights.

Take, for example, the pitched battle waged over Blackstone Group's $4.7 billion deal to buy Dynegy, a distressed merchant power generator. Hedge fund manager Seneca Capital and billionaire Carl Icahn have argued that Dynegy is undervaluing the company, because gas and power prices will rise.

Dynegy responded in an open letter to shareholders. "Seneca may be willing to wager on natural gas prices turning around and, by extension, Dynegy's stock price and future," said the Oct. 26 letter, "however, Dynegy believes such a strategy is reckless and not in the best interest of Dynegy and its stockholders."

From Dynegy's perspective, there is no near-term recovery in sight for natural gas prices.

Analysts remain bearish on gas prices. Many are predicting prices won't reach $6 per million British thermal units for at least a couple of years, which could pressure investor-owned gas companies to increase production volumes, or to shutter some fields until winter demand pushes up prices.

From their offices in Irving, Texas, Exxon's executives have listened to a lively and ongoing Wall Street debate about the wisdom of the $40 billion buyout of XTO Energy, a major natural gas producer. Since the deal closed in June, the company has faced withering scrutiny from analysts who had long championed Exxon's resistance to big acquisitions and its success in maintaining a high-returns, low-cost business structure. The XTO deal made Exxon the largest U.S. gas producer.

Banking on climate change

"I didn't like the price by which they selected XTO, and I'm not enamored by the asset base of XTO," Mark Gilman, an energy analyst with the Benchmark Co., said in a recent interview. Exxon can absorb the financial hit from selling natural gas at cheap prices, he said, but for a $40 billion price tag, investors need more bang for their buck.

Arjun Murti, a Goldman Sachs analyst who in 2008 became a minor celebrity for warning that oil prices were heading toward $200 a barrel, has been a leading critic of Exxon's XTO purchase. In his latest report on Exxon's third-quarter results, he dinged the company for jeopardizing long-term returns on capital.

"The shares have meaningfully lagged the broader energy sector since the XTO acquisition, removing a portion, though not all, of its long-standing valuation premium versus integrated oil peers," Murti wrote in the Oct. 28 report. Exxon gets credit for its solid operations and well-respected management team, Murti noted, "even if investors remain unconvinced on the merits of XTO."

Murti's chief concern is that "Exxon's long-term returns on capital are in the process of regressing to the peer group average."

In an Oct. 29 research report, Barclays Capital didn't mince words. Analysts cited investors' "extremely negative sentiment" and piled onto the critique that shareholders' earnings per share will fall as a result of the XTO transaction. Barclays said natural gas would have to hit $12.50 for Exxon to earn a 15 percent return on the XTO purchase. "We believe that burden of proof remains on management to show they can significantly improve XTO's breakeven requirement."

But at least one financial analyst puts a premium on the prospect of rising demand for natural gas in the United States, and figures climate change will have something to do with that gas consumption. With oil and gas fields in far corners of the world getting harder to acquire, Citigroup oil and gas analyst Faisel Khan said U.S. gas is a safe place for future earnings. Exxon's decision to buy XTO, a top driller in Texas gas basins, solidifies the company's long-term position in North American gas.

"The writing on the wall is that gas demand for power generation is going to continue to grow as it has," Khan said. "If you want to be where your customers are going to be in 10 years, these are the assets you want to own."

Khan flatly disagrees with those who say gas prices have to skyrocket for the Exxon and XTO deal to be worthwhile. As gas prices recover to about $5 per million British thermal units and Exxon provides further proof it can produce out of the shale basins, "we'll all look back and think that this is the right decision," he said.

Gas prices shift in cycles, Khan said. "Eventually, over time, you'll get some equilibrium."