Canada is falling far short of its goals to cut greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the decade and has no plan in place to change the dynamic, a new government audit warns.

The report from Canadian Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development Scott Vaughan -- who acts as Parliament's watchdog -- is not surprising considering prior forecasts but lays out in more detail statistically how far the country needs to go to slash emissions 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.

The report concludes that the country likely has run out of time to get close to meeting that target, to which it is committed as a party to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.

On its current path, Canada's greenhouse gas emissions will be 7.4 percent above 2005 levels by the end of the decade, rather than 17 percent below, according to the audit. Emissions are expected to rise in every Canadian energy sector except electricity, with a 30 percent jump in emissions expected in the oil and gas sector alone. Much of that growth will be spurred by new production in the Canadian oil sands, according to government data.

Additionally, the country has not done a detailed economic analysis on whether its current approach of regulating emissions energy sector by sector, rather than through a national plan, is the most cost-effective option for Canada.

"The regulatory approach does not identify which specific industries within each economic sector the regulations will target and when, or how these regulations will contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions," states the audit.

Running out of lead time

It also questions whether Canada will have proportionally higher costs than the United States in cutting emissions. Those concerns echo a report last year from the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy -- a government-backed group -- that found Canada's costs will be higher to achieve parallel reductions, because of Canada's differing fuel mix and faster-growing emissions.

"While 2020 may seem far off, for many energy-intensive sectors it is tomorrow in terms of the lead time for making the necessary capital investments in new equipment to comply with regulations," states the audit.

The report notes, for example, that it can take up to five years to develop greenhouse gas regulations in Canada. That was the case for the country's regulations on coal-fired electricity, which were announced in 2010 but won't take effect until 2015. The coal rules would require new plants in Canada to emit roughly the same greenhouse gases as natural gas plants (ClimateWire, Aug. 22, 2011).

In addition to the coal rules, Canada has put in place two greenhouse gas regulations for transportation, including emissions standards for light trucks that are aligned with the United States'. It has not moved to regulate emissions in the oil and gas sector or the oil sands region.

The commissioner recommended that Environment Canada -- an arm of the government -- perform a more detailed analysis of the 2020 target. The analysis should identify existing policies that could affect emissions, outline the specific greenhouse gas reductions expected from those policies and explain the estimated timelines for achieving the reductions. The government should also do more detailed scientific modeling of the cost of specific policies, Vaughan said.

In a statement, Environment Minister Peter Kent welcomed the report. He said the country was making some progress, noting that emissions held steady from 2009 to 2010, even as economic growth increased 3.2 percent. He said final publication of the coal regulations would be "coming online in coming months."

"In fact, federal measures, combined with action taken by provinces, have brought us one-quarter of the way towards our 2020 target," Kent said. "Our government is committed to ensuring an environment that is clean, safe and sustainable for all Canadians, while creating jobs and promoting economic growth."