8. AGRICULTURE:

Drought losses confirmed for corn

Published:

The final, most accurate tally of 2012 crop production to date was released Friday by the Agriculture Department, confirming the extent of crop losses due to the drought.

Corn production topped at 10.8 billion bushels, about 55 million bushels more than last month's estimate, but still 13 percent lower than last year and more than a quarter less than what USDA expected in May.

Soybeans bushels were also hit by the drought, although not nearly as much as corn. More than 3 billion bushels were produced, down 3 percent from the 2011 crop but still the seventh-largest soybean crop on record.

The figures could wreak havoc on commodity markets, as the corn stocks-to-use ratio hovers just above 5 percent. Normal stocks levels are around 10 percent, said Davis.

"The lingering drought is of concern to the markets, as average or above-average yields are needed in 2013 to allow the market to rebuild stocks to levels that will remove some of the uncertainty in the market," said Todd Davis, a senior economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Compared to past drought years, corn is a little more resilient. Ninety percent of the acres that were planted were harvested this year, compared with about 85 percent in previous drought years, said Darin Newsom, a senior analyst with DTN, an agricultural information service.

In May, USDA expected a record 14.79 billion bushels of corn would be produced in 2012. Farmers planted the largest acreage in 75 years, and corn ethanol groups celebrated this as proof there would be plenty of corn to go around.

"With normal growing conditions it is clear that farmers will continue to meet the bell and provide safe, reliable food and clean, domestic fuel and silence those chicken littles that perpetually predict a shortage of corn and catastrophe in the grocery aisle," said Matt Hartwig, then-spokesman for the Renewable Fuels Association, in an email in May.

But growing conditions were anything but normal. The drought intensified over the Midwest in June and July, leading to dramatic losses and fierce political fighting between livestock groups and the ethanol industry. A coalition of poultry, dairy, beef and pork trade associations said that the combination of increasing ethanol production and lower corn yields from the drought was driving up corn prices.

Hard winter wheat faring badly

Two governors of livestock-producing states petitioned U.S. EPA to waive the federal renewable fuel standard for ethanol, which encourages production. EPA denied the request in November for lack of evidence that a waiver would lower corn prices.

Winter wheat could be the next casualty of the drought. Hard red winter wheat, which makes bread flour and grows in the Great Plains states, has suffered since farmers planted seed in the fall, despite a small amount of precipitation in December. By Dec. 30, the portion of wheat rated poor to very poor was 61 percent in Oklahoma, 49 percent in Nebraska and 31 percent in Kansas. Agricultural climatologists are fearing conditions similar to the 1930s Dust Bowl in the Plains states.

"We've had 76 of the 77 counties declared as disaster areas," said Tim Bartram, executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Growers Association.

"There's probably a larger percentage than anyone thinks that is, if not dead, seriously injured," said Newsom.

He added that many farmers could plant failed wheat acres with spring crops like corn, soybeans or spring wheat.

Bartram doesn't think that will help his state's farmers, 70 to 80 percent of whom have purchased crop insurance.

"The success rate for a spring crop is not normal for our area," Bartram said. "If you're not going to get a wheat crop, chances are you won't have a spring or summer crop, either."

In addition to the crop production report, USDA released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, grain stocks report and winter wheat seedings report.