The wait for more fuel-efficient gas furnaces just got longer. The Department of Energy has moved to withdraw a new rule that would require consumers in 30 northern states to buy 90-percent-efficient furnaces starting May 1.

The rule would have saved 81 million to 130 million metric tons of carbon dioxide between 2013 and 2045, according to DOE estimates, as consumers upgraded their furnaces from 80 percent efficiency to 90 percent efficiency systems.

In a joint settlement of a case brought against it by the American Public Gas Association, DOE last week asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to vacate the new rule. The settlement needs to be approved by the court for the rule to be vacated.

APGA had challenged the rule last year. One of its main contentions was that DOE had issued a direct final rule without considering all stakeholders' concerns. DOE can issue a direct final rule, allow a period for public comment, and then consider withdrawing the rule if any comments provide a reasonable basis not to go ahead with it.

"APGA put forward adverse comments, and I know other groups did as well. But despite receiving adverse comments, DOE went ahead with the rule," said David Schryver, APGA's executive vice president.

"We believe that the DOE did the right thing in proposing the direct final rule," said Kit Kennedy, clean energy counsel at the Natural Resources Defense Council. "We think that the DOE did the right thing and should have continued to defend the lawsuit."

Kennedy said the rule was formed out of a consensus agreement after DOE consulted manufacturers, trade associations, and environmental and consumer advocates.

APGA also said the new rule would hurt efficiency. The rule would require installing condensing furnaces with additional vents, Schryver said, and the higher cost of venting would drive consumers to lower-efficiency electric furnaces.

Andrew deLaski, executive director of the Appliance Standards Awareness Project (ASAP), said there's no danger of that happening. "I think it's ludicrous. According to EIA, heating with an electric furnace is three times [the price] as compared to gas, and with gas prices declining it's probably four times," he said. "Electric furnaces -- there's no place in the market. They have 5 percent of market share today because they are a really lousy choice in terms of operating costs."

Potential $10.7B in heating savings put on ice

However, DOE concedes that some consumers would find it expensive to upgrade their gas furnaces to the new standard. For these cases, it had proposed a waiver of the 90 percent efficiency rule.

"The rule does mention a potential waiver process, but no waiver process was ever agreed to. We found that the proposed waiver would be unworkable," Schryver said. "If you're living in a cold northern state and the furnace goes out in January, you don't want to have to wait two or three days to get a waiver to have an 80 percent furnace as opposed to a 90 percent furnace."

Schryver said that contractors were not trained to assess waivers, and it was not certain that they have 80 percent furnaces available to install in households that received waivers.

But sticking with the old standard could be the costlier option for regular households. DOE estimates that the 90 percent standard over 30 years would save consumers $10.7 billion taking into account utility bills, equipment costs and gas prices. "Consumer protection organizations like efficiency standards because they save money for consumers," Kennedy said.

If the court accepts the settlement and the gas furnace efficiency standard rule is vacated, DOE will have to go back to the drawing board to come up with a new rule. Kennedy said this sets the stage for even stricter norms. "The law requires that the standard be set at the highest level that is economically feasible," she said. "We will be pushing for the highest possible standard, and that could be higher than the 90 percent level."

DeLaski is less optimistic. He said DOE will now take another year to issue a proposed standard and an additional two years to come up with a new final standard.

"It actually means we'll have to wait another seven years. There's a five-year lag time from when the DOE publishes a standard and when it goes into effect," deLaski said. The new standard will apply only to the installation of new products. "That means that 80 percent units will be installed to run for the next 20 to 40 years," he added.