The oil and gas industry's top Washington representative today predicted victory in the politically volatile battle over Keystone XL, telling Canadians he believes President Obama also "knows" the $5.3 billion pipeline eventually will be built.

American Petroleum Institute President Jack Gerard's speech to members of Alberta's thriving oil industry reflects a largely behind-the-scenes confidence among the strongest Keystone XL supporters that its construction will proceed regardless of who wins the White House in November. But Gerard edged closer to a new argument by suggesting that Obama is poised to reverse his previous rejection of the pipeline and break from environmentalists by advancing it after Election Day.

The White House's decision to block the Alberta-to-Texas line in January, instead approving a smaller section that carries oil south from Oklahoma, "wasn't based on science or engineering or some vague idea of energy security -- it was based on politics," Gerard said today.

"The Keystone XL extension will be built," he added. "The opportunity here is too great; the stakes too high; the shared imperative for both countries too urgent. You know that as well as I do. And though I'm not a betting man, I have a sneaking suspicion that our president knows it as well."

Gerard's take comes as House Republicans continue to press for language fast-tracking the XL line, which would nearly double U.S. import capacity of emissions-heavy Canadian oil-sands crude, during bicameral talks on a new long-term transportation bill.

The GOP's chances of capitalizing on the transportation legislation to push the pipeline appear slim, however. The Obama administration has responded with a veto warning, citing an ongoing review of a proposed new route for the pipeline through Nebraska that is unlikely to run its course before November (E&E Daily, May 17).

Greens have long vowed to stop the pipeline's construction using any means they can, pointing to Keystone XL as an emblem of increased oil-sands development that climate activists such as Bill McKibben and James Hansen warn could lead to irreversible harm from a warming planet. Gerard referred to the depth of that opposition today as he praised Canadian oil companies for their response to environmentalist critics.

"Despite the many indignities that were thrown your way throughout the entire process, you handled the Keystone situation as it was presented to you better than anyone could have asked or expected," the oil lobby chief said.