An estimated 9 million barrels a day of extra gasoline and diesel could enter the world supply over the next five years, according to a report from Hart Energy.

The increase is attributed to refinery expansion projects that could bring competition for U.S. exports.

But analysts say rising demand over the same time period should protect U.S. markets in the short run.

"There are many grand announcements that are made, and then they don't come to pass," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. He added that he expects demand for fuel to grow in Africa, China, India and the Middle East.

The first refinery expansion projects are expected to come online in Asia and the Middle East, far from the Latin American states that are the biggest foreign buyers of U.S. refined products.

"It really is a global market, but we have a competitive advantage in the United States in supplying Latin America and perhaps Europe," said Roger Ihne, a principal at Deloitte LLP, adding that cheaper natural gas also gives the United States a leg up compared with other markets.

Lipow expects several refineries to close as new projects come online or expand. San Antonio-based Tesoro Corp. recently announced it would scale back production at its Kapolei refinery in Hawaii, perhaps marking this trend.

The Hart analysis, "Global Crude, Refining & Clean Transportation Fuels Outlook to 2035," includes categories for gasoline and diesel demand and trade flow by sulfur (Jeannie Kever, Fuel Fix, Jan. 17). -- BS