7. OFFSHORE DRILLING:
Industry shows cautious optimism over deepwater's future
Published:
HOUSTON -- Oil and gas companies' confidence is riding high as the world's largest industry meeting comes to a close here today.
Though there is still much frustration over a reported slowdown in regulation governing Gulf of Mexico drilling, rig numbers are rising and activity is expected to remain robust for the rest of the year there and elsewhere in the world.
Companies are also not about to write off natural gas in the United States, even though a glut in supplies has pushed prices to new lows, squeezing producers financially. Oil and gas firms of all sizes are still making investments in gas production, and institutional investors continue to keep gas contracts in their portfolios, seemingly confident of an eventual lift in pricing.
Workers in the industry are also upbeat and have been using this year's Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) to talk to recruiters and explore new job opportunities. Though many report satisfaction with their careers, according to one poll taken at the gathering, a large percentage of them could be persuaded to switch companies, a further sign of the workforce challenges facing employers in oil and gas.
Two years since the Macondo well blowout and Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the offshore energy industry is regaining its confidence and optimism.
Regulation is still tight -- industry experts say it now takes about three times as long for a company to obtain federal government work approvals as it did before the Gulf spill, and about twice as long to gain well drilling permits. But the rig fleet in the Gulf of Mexico continues to grow. Observers say about 27 rigs are active in the Gulf, and many OTC attendees think that number could grow to 40 rigs by 2015 as momentum builds.
"There's a long way to go, though, in terms of full activity," said Robert Kessler, director of oil research at the consultancy Tudor, Pickering, Holt and Co. Nevertheless, the floating rig count in the Gulf of Mexico "should reach a five-year high by the end of this year," he added.
Still, the working environment has changed, with the consequences of the 2010 spill causing some friction within the industry, and not just between companies and government regulators.
Because of the huge financial hit BP PLC took from the Gulf spill, many major operators in the area are perceived as trying to shift more liability onto the companies they contract with, rather than 100 percent on themselves as in the past. Oil and gas advisory firm GL Noble Denton questioned OTC participants about this move and discovered that most feel it but a strong majority still opposes it.
In poll results released yesterday, GL Noble Denton reported that, when asked whether third-party contractors should be held somewhat liable in the event of a spill, 66 percent disagreed, with the rest saying it was OK for contractors to share responsibility with the larger exploration and production companies that profit from the direct sale of oil and natural gas pulled from the ocean bottom.
Despite their opposition, many deem the new working environment -- with tighter regulation and more shared risk across companies -- as the new working reality in the Gulf of Mexico and in other parts of the world.
"Attitude towards risk has changed dramatically in recent years, causing discussion over who should accept liability if things go wrong," said GL Group board member Pekka Paasivaara in a report on the poll results. GL Group is the parent company of GL Noble Denton.
"Operators have traditionally accepted liability, except in cases of gross negligence, because they benefit from the upside of production," Paasivaara said. Though operators are now seeking to share liabilities in deepwater oil and gas operations, "our poll shows that the industry at large disagrees with this move," he added.
Still, more scrutiny on offshore energy companies and a changed legal atmosphere don't seem to be holding back companies for the time being.
Bouncing back, with some worries
Workforce challenges are a longer-term worry. This year's OTC gathering has seen a heavy emphasis on talent recruitment, with human resource professionals manning booths alongside their technicians and sales representatives. In a separate poll taken at the conference by the website Oilcareers.com, 33 percent of respondents said they could be tempted to change jobs, while 25 percent acknowledged actively seeking new lines of work.
Otherwise, most signs point to an offshore industry moving quickly to completely bounce back from the 2010 disaster.
At the start of the OTC, officials at Barclays Capital, a major banking and investment firm, reported that its corporate banking division has seen a huge surge in activity for financing exploration and production operations. The bank says it was involved in $355 million worth of financing arrangements related to the industry in just the first three months of 2012, with a big focus of activity in the North Sea, an area long perceived by the industry as in decline.
In a release, Barclays' head of oil and gas banking, Walter Cumming, described the first-quarter uptick in financing arrangements as "far busier than the same period in 2011." The bank interpreted the increase as a sign that companies are growing much more confident with their investment decisions than they were immediately after the Gulf of Mexico spill.
Third-party investors are also seemingly bullish on the industry's prospects this year.
A poll conducted by researchers at Southern Methodist University's Cox School of Business that was released at OTC showed strong institutional investor confidence in both oil and natural gas holdings. Seventy percent of respondents to their survey said they felt their positions in natural gas would remain constant this year, despite the steep drop in U.S. natural gas prices seen since the onset of the shale gas boom.
Indeed, most surveyed said they were considering increasing the weight of oil and gas investments in their portfolios this year. Seventy percent said they thought such investments would increase in value. SMU researchers said they were most surprised by the confidence in gas markets demonstrated in their study.