While North America's energy boom dominates headlines, BP PLC sees it as just one force shaping an energy future that will look very different in two decades but also eerily similar.

In a report released yesterday, BP forecast these differences for the energy world in 2030: The United States will be nearly self-sufficient in energy, Chinese coal demand will have leveled off, world economies will be vastly more energy-efficient, and renewable energy will be the fastest-growing fuel.

BP expected other storylines to stay on course: Russia and Saudi Arabia will remain the world's top energy and oil exporters, natural gas will gain favor throughout the world but coal will remain central, and the world leaders on shale gas will remain in North America.

The BP report put in perspective just how massive the world's energy appetite is; by 2030, 1.3 billion people will demand energy, and they will have higher incomes to obtain it.

BP said the world has enough energy, across all fuels, to supply its needs. But even enormous supplies prove modest in the bigger picture. Shale gas and tight oil, led by North America, will grow sixfold by 2030, but they will muster only a fifth of the increased global supply of energy relative to today. Renewable energy rates comparably, at 17 percent.

"Despite all the growth from shale, renewables and other sources, conventional fossil fuel supplies are still required to expand, providing almost half the growth in energy supply," BP said in the report, "Energy Outlook 2030." "Despite all the attention surrounding the shale gas revolution, in volume terms the bigger story is the expansion of mostly conventional production" outside Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development nations.

One factor holding down global demand is energy efficiency. BP said nearly every part of the world is getting more economic activity per unit of energy, a pace that will pick up over the next decade. By 2030, the world economy will need 31 percent less energy to generate $1 of gross domestic product.

Overall energy demand still grows, however, as fossil fuels switch places on the leaderboard. Coal, natural gas and oil are each converging on 26 to 28 percent of market share, BP said. Natural gas will get there by increasing its global market share, but oil will get there by losing market share.

Coal, too, faces a flat future according to BP. China, the world's leading coal consumer, is expected to scale back for energy efficiency reasons and because of a switch to less energy-intensive economic activities. Combined with decreasing demand in the wealthy countries, BP said, coal consumption and production is expected to level off after 2020.

That forecast resembles Exxon Mobil Corp.'s, issued in its long-term energy forecast last month. Exxon Mobil expected global coal demand to revert to 2010 levels in the long run (EnergyWire, Dec. 12, 2012).

The American coal industry, hopeful for its prospects in Asia, has resisted that storyline. Speaking at the National Press Club yesterday, National Mining Association President and CEO Hal Quinn said coal will become the world's top energy source by mid-decade. He portrayed coal as the fuel of choice in emerging economies and said it could also burn in high-efficiency plants in the United States.

BP forecast another loser in the next two decades: climate change. At a news conference, chief economist Christof Rühl acknowledged that even with gains in efficiency and renewables, the world is not on a path likely to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius.

"This is a projection," he said of BP's report. "It is not necessarily what we'd like to see happen."

"You are right, targets will not be reached," he said to a reporter who asked about climate change. "And there's a lot of disappointment currently among those worried about climate change."

Rühl blamed policymakers and energy companies. Several years ago, they promised that climate action could be cheap and easy: that low-carbon technology was ready and that it wouldn't cost much. He said they failed to deliver, frustrating and disappointing the public.

Rühl added that energy markets improve with competition and innovation. He said the lack of market mechanisms on climate, such as a price on carbon, is limiting progress.