1. CLIMATE: Republicans scramble for a voice in warming debate (Greenwire, 05/06/2008)

Darren Samuelsohn, Greenwire senior reporter

Republicans are focusing like never before on global warming, an issue they once considered a fringe notion pursued by the environmental left.

Senate Republicans held their first closed-door meeting on the issue last month to consider strategies in anticipation of a floor debate on comprehensive cap-and-trade emissions legislation. And on the other side of Capitol Hill, House Republican leaders are hearing privately from industry officials worried about prospects for a raft of federal climate rules spurred by a Supreme Court ruling last year and a growing list of state and local mandates.

Meanwhile, the party is girding for President Bush's departure from the White House, a changing of the guard at the top of the party. "John McCain will be a huge voice in this," Rep. Mary Bono (R-Calif.) said of the Arizona senator and presumptive Republican presidential nominee's position on global warming.

But while McCain brings to the top of the Republican ticket a long record as co-sponsor of a major U.S. climate bill, that doesn't mean the party will fall meekly in step behind him. Said Kraig Naasz, executive director of the National Mining Association and a former aide to several congressional Republicans, "There's not going to be a single GOP position any more than there will be a single Democratic position."

Senate Republicans, for example, are trying to force several hot-button issues into the debate, including a greater role for nuclear power and provisions that would guarantee that China and India make their own commitments to curb emissions.

The party is also home to many who have made a name vocalizing their scientific skepticism, including two recent committee chairmen. Bush's administration, for example, was strongly opposed to the very cap-and-trade policy that McCain endorses. And in recent House and Senate floor debates on global warming, Republicans have voted by and large against taking big steps to tackle the issue -- or even to acknowledge its significance.

"Too many in our caucus haven't come to grips with whether they think global warming is legitimate," said Connecticut Republican Rep. Christopher Shays. "Because of that, we're all over the place. Because of that, we're losing a whole generation of voters who are really disgusted that we don't get it. It's very sad."

New faces

Yet Democrats fret that McCain's position on climate gives him a chance to claim a leadership role on global warming and let the Republicans play a game of take-away on their issue. McCain can certainly contrast himself with Bush, and some election observers see climate change helping the Republican attract moderate voters who are considered essential to winning the White House.

Indeed, McCain's emergence as a candidate has Capitol Hill Republican leaders rethinking their positions -- and perhaps even delaying taking their own positions to let the presidential nominee speak first. Plans are in the works for McCain to give two major environmental policy speeches Monday and Tuesday during campaign visits to Seattle and Portland, Ore.

"Don't underestimate the power of the potential president to, if not persuade, at least steer a policy discussion," said Tucker Eskew, a former communications adviser to Bush now working as a consultant for Environmental Defense Fund.

Back on Capitol Hill, there are significant questions over who will lead on climate change as the issue ripens -- with or without McCain in the White House.

Some of the party's early leaders on climate have either retired from Congress or lost re-election bids, including Rep. Sherwood Boehlert of New York and Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island. The Republican co-sponsor of the leading Senate global warming bill, Virginia's John Warner, also retires in January.

Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.), the Senate climate bill's other lead co-sponsor, said he is not sure what Republican will join him as a co-sponsor in the next session of Congress if the Lieberman-Warner measure fails this year. "I haven't thought that far ahead," said Lieberman, who is supporting McCain for president. "Let's be optimistic and assume Warner and I get it done this year."

A number of Republicans are well positioned to step forward on climate, including North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole and Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman. Both co-sponsored the Lieberman-Warner bill while gearing up for their own re-election campaigns. Maine's Republican senators, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, also have been consistent "aye" votes on cap-and-trade legislation.

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski also is in a prime position to step up in 2009. She will take over as the lead Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, where she will sit across from Chairman Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico. The two have already teamed up on their own Senate climate bill, which has the backing of labor groups and some key industry constituents.

Republicans say they would rather work with a McCain administration on climate than a Democratic White House and Congress.

"It'd be a lot more persuasive than Barbara Boxer doing it," said Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.), referring to the liberal California Democrat who chairs the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.

Doubting the science

To be sure, McCain doesn't represent all Republicans on climate.

Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe has long been a critic of McCain's stance on climate change. In one nationally televised interview in 2006, Inhofe, then chairman of the Senate Environment panel, said he discounted McCain's position because of his presidential ambitions (Greenwire, Oct. 3, 2006).

Inhofe, now the ranking member of that committee, said he won't be changing his stance. He said he disagreed with Bush's decision last month to come out in support of stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions several decades from now. And he won't line up behind McCain even if he is in charge of the party.

"I get into things because they are are too politically sensitive," Inhofe said last month. If McCain's climate proposal had become law, Inhofe said, "We'd now be looking at a huge tax increase for the American people for something that wouldn't accomplish anything. I can't remain silent. Unfortunately, a lot of members are not quite willing to take the political risk that I'm willing to take."

Inhofe has company in Texas Rep. Joe Barton, the ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Barton does not see the regulation of carbon dioxide emissions as doing anything to influence global temperatures. He is hoping McCain's position is not set in stone.

"I just pray that when he becomes president, he'll sit down and listen to people like me and take a little bit different tack," Barton said in an interview.

Those two skeptics frustrate the few moderate Republicans remaining on Capitol Hill. "Our folks have gotten into the ideology of it, and they have closed their eyes that this is an issue that has to be addressed," Shays said.

While public opinion polls continue to rank climate change near the bottom of voter concerns, Shays said the Republicans could find themselves in trouble if they continue to speak out against the science. "There will be a number of voters who are ready to say we're finished with these guys," he said.

Getting into specifics

A growing number of Republicans say they have accepted the scientific evidence on climate change and are now focusing on critical elements of the policy debate.

If McCain wins the White House, Ohio Sen. George Voinovich would likely leap into the leading Republican spot on the Senate Environment committee. That is because Inhofe would grab McCain's seat as the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

A close ally to major manufacturing companies and electric utilities, Voinovich has started crafting an alternative global warming plan that focuses on tax incentives for low- and zero-carbon energy technologies. Voinovich said he would accept a cap-and-trade program, but not until the other options he has spotlighted have run out. And not until 2030.

Environmentalists have started mocking Voinovich's proposal as a "do nothing bill" written by someone who still thinks global warming is a hoax. But Voinovich maintains he has got the right idea, and he expects to get a chance to make his case to McCain.

"I'm not sure he really understands the whole picture and looked at the cost-benefit analysis," Voinovich said during a January interview.

Other Republicans are digging in on the climate issue too. They plan to offer amendments in the Senate debate that emphasize the role of nuclear power, as well as what to do about China and India. McCain's campaign has given strong indications the presidential candidate will speak out on both topics as well.

Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.), a former chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and current ranking member, said he expects the GOP to come out swinging when the Lieberman-Warner bill comes to the floor in June. He got that impression after 90 minutes of debate at the closed-door Senate Republican luncheon where climate was the sole topic for discussion.

"What did surprise me was the depth of knowledge and the indication by so many that they were going to do the hard kind of work getting ready for it," Domenici said. "They're going to really be ready as never before on the issue of the validity and the workability of cap-and-trade."

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