1. NEGOTIATIONS: Health care to be a stumbling block on road to Copenhagen (ClimateWire, 09/08/2009)

Lisa Friedman, E&E reporter

The Senate's newest round of delays on global warming legislation has some current and former climate negotiators worried about prospects for a global emissions deal this year in Copenhagen.

Environmental activists insist that Sen. Barbara Boxer's (D-Calif.) announcement that she will push back introduction of her climate bill in the wake of Sen. Edward Kennedy's (D-Mass.) death is insignificant. But others said that Democrats' desire to realize health care reform -- which Kennedy called "the cause of my life" and which at least one senator has suggested renaming in Kennedy's memory -- makes it all but certain that climate legislation won't see the Senate floor this year.

"Even if Senator Kennedy had been alive and well, health care probably wouldn't have been able to pass until the fall. With his unfortunate passing, it means the debate will be prolonged," said Stuart Eizenstat, who was the lead U.S. negotiator on the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

"The Congress as an institution has difficulty doing a lot of things at the same time," Eizenstat said. Climate change this year "is going to be a casualty. We will not have a bill signed by the president by Copenhagen."

The U.N. climate summit in Copenhagen this December is still being billed as the deadline for a major new international treaty. But with nearly all decisions resting on what the United States agrees to -- and with the U.S. position still in limbo -- negotiators say they are increasingly worried about the likelihood of crafting a global deal this year.

"Everybody was hoping that the legislative process in the U.S. would continue at the same pace as before the summer break. The latest news we hear from the U.S. is a little bit disheartening for Copenhagen," said E.U. climate negotiator Artur Runge-Metzger.

"The uncertainty in the U.S. is really a significant handicap," agreed Reid Detchon, vice president for energy and climate at the U.N. Foundation. "Everybody wants to know what the U.S. is going to do. That's the critical question that has been holding up the climate negotiations for the last several years."

Enviros say delay is a 'molehill'

The House in June passed legislation capping U.S. greenhouse gas emissions at 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and 83 percent below 2005 levels by midcentury. The Senate had expected to return to Washington this week with a bill written and a vote in Boxer's Environment and Public Works Committee by Sept. 28. With five other Senate committees expected to ring in on the legislation, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) had indicated the bill might be on the floor by October.

But last week, Boxer and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) said in a joint statement that the measure will likely be introduced at the end of the month. The senators cited Kennedy's death and the "intensive work on health care legislation" among the prime reasons. Still, they maintained, the climate bill is "moving along well."

David Doniger, climate change policy director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said he is not worried about the new release date.

"I don't think any difference has been made," he said. "We anticipate this is a short delay and things are going to remain on schedule. This is a molehill." Doniger also put more faith in the Senate's ability to multitask, saying he still believes a climate bill will at least make major headway this year, with enough momentum to propel an agreement in Copenhagen.

"I expected that when Congress comes back, health care is going to be the first order of business," he said. "But can Congress do two things at once? Yes."

David Waskow, climate change director at Oxfam International, agreed. Pushing back the timing in the Senate won't change the fundamental international dynamics as the Copenhagen summit approaches, he said.

"Clearly, timing will be tight to get something through the floor, but the first question to be faced is what the committees do and how strong the bill is from an international perspective," he said. Both he and Doniger said a bill that emerges from committee with significant emission reduction targets and substantial money to help poor countries adapt to climate impacts will help in Copenhagen.

"Senate committees have a chance to deliver something good," Waskow said. "They can really create a context for a successful Copenhagen."

Copenhagen: D-Day or a 'way station' to 2010?

While U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change chief Yvo de Boer and some others have continued to proclaim that the Copenhagen summit is D-Day for the creation of a new treaty, experts have for many months now been eyeing the December meeting more realistically.

Eizenstat called Copenhagen "a major way station to a 2010 agreement." Detchon said he expects an "outline agreement" to emerge there that sets the stage for fuller details next year.

But getting even that, analysts said, will still require a clear signal from the United States that it intends to deliver significant emission reductions.

Many believe a bill signed by President Obama is critical because it would be like backup proof to other nations that the United States truly intends to reduce emissions. At the same time, having a bill also would assure members of Congress that Obama's negotiating team isn't about to promise the world something that lawmakers have not debated and agreed to.

In other arenas, experts said they have seen fresh momentum build over the summer toward a climate deal. Analysts have long expected Obama to sign a concrete energy agreement with China when he travels there in November. Last week, Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) publicly confirmed the intent to agree to a new bilateral treaty.

Agreement between the United States and China -- the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, responsible for more than 40 percent of the world's emissions -- is considered a critical prelude to any agreement.

How much can the U.S. commit?

But Eizenstat noted that the absence of signed U.S. climate legislation still will make the negotiating process more of a tightrope walk for State Department envoy Todd Stern. At the same time, others said, it will provoke doubt among other nations that the United States can back up its promises -- and make countries like China and India even less willing to compromise.

"It doesn't make it easier, definitely," said Runge-Metzger. "The question is, how much can the U.S. commit to when we are in Copenhagen? Of course, it would be ideal to have legislation adopted. But if that's not happening, then the question is, what is the political will on the side of Obama?"

That may be too soon to tell. For now, the fight on health care continues to rage, and climate talks remain in limbo. On the international scene, G-20 finance ministers are preparing to meet later this month in Pittsburgh to discuss climate finance, but no one is putting hard dollar figures on the table for what might be available to poor countries. A recent U.N. climate meeting in Bonn, Germany, left a number of negotiators, including Runge-Metzger, frustrated and disappointed with the slowing pace of talks.

Donniger, for one, said he remains confident.

"It isn't baseball if it isn't played under the lights," he said. "There's a pattern to these negotiations, all the successful ones. People bargain hard, and they save their concessions and creative proposals for the very last."

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