Toyota's recent vehicle recalls will likely harm its own sales, but it won't dampen the larger clean-car market, experts say.

Among Toyota's recalls were 133,000 of its newest model year Prius, the hybrid car that has led the United States in clean vehicle sales and become an icon of low-carbon driving. The Prius' glitch wasn't in its drivetrain but in its anti-lock braking system.

Observers of the electric-car market say Toyota's brand name is on the line, and how the company responds will determine its health. But they also say there's enough overall momentum in clean cars that the Prius recall won't be a major setback.

"I don't think that the brake problem creates a black eye for hybrids," said Therese Langer, transportation program director for the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. "Sure, people may hesitate to buy Toyotas for a while, but the Prius has already a full generation with a really stellar record, and other hybrids, too."

"So I do feel as though hybrids are beyond that point of really being a technology with everyone's eyes on them for quality in a general sense," she said.

Web traffic on the Web site for Kelley Blue Book is already showing declining interest in Toyota. The site surveyed roughly 700 shoppers about the recalls, and about a quarter of them said they were considering a Toyota purchase before, but they aren't anymore. Ford, Chevrolet, Hyundai and Honda showed slight upticks in interest.

Blue Book doesn't see a 'green' problem

"We at Kelley Blue Book don't believe this recall has soured the American public's taste for cost-effective, fuel-efficient green vehicles whatsoever," said spokeswoman Robyn Eckard. "This is a manufacturing problem, not a 'green' problem."

Perception matters for hybrid cars, since most shoppers aren't familiar with the technology. The Prius took a decade to advance from the "early adopters" -- those who buy a new technology for its own sake -- to a more mainstream audience, thanks in part to volatile gas prices.

Still, hybrid cars have failed to rise above 3 percent of annual car sales, mainly because they cost more. Experts have said that for hybrids to become more affordable, they must sell in large enough numbers that the price of their batteries can come down.

That's seen as an important overall step for electric cars, since most companies are relying on the same lithium-ion batteries for their plug-in hybrid models as well as their all-electric cars.

Most forecasts show hybrid sales growing dramatically in the coming decades. Analysts said the Toyota recall presents an opportunity for companies wanting to take the lead, as Toyota's long reputation for quality hangs in the balance.

"In the world of recalls, if a company quickly fixes a problem, then there is little residue," said Bruce Belzowski, assistant research scientist at the University of Michigan's Transportation Research Institute.

If buyers credit Toyota for making the recalls without government prodding, it may be seen as a responsible, responsive company. "But if there are dramatic scenes of people dying, then it may take a while to recover if the story lasts for a long time," he said.

Toyota may also prove more resilient than other brands, if its history of well-built cars gives it more leeway to respond, others said.

Opportunity for other manufacturers?

Roland Hwang, transportation program director for the Natural Resources Defense Council, said, "Prius owners are a very loyal lot, and Toyota has a huge reservoir of goodwill."

Still, the question is especially complex for hybrids because it's a young technology and some buyers have only purchased a Prius because they expected the highest-quality product.

In 2003, Reid Heffner, then a researcher at the University of California, Davis, interviewed several dozen hybrid buyers -- some of the technology's earliest adopters. In these in-depth discussions, many said they only took the risk on hybrid technology -- whether a Prius or another brand -- if the manufacturer had a strong reputation for quality.

Heffner paraphrased: "I would only buy it if I were sure the technology was going to work. The only automakers I felt could do this were some of the Asian automakers -- Toyota and Honda."

Heffner, now a transportation engineer at Booz Allen Hamilton, said, "Those folks told us they didn't want a hybrid from GM or a hybrid from Ford." Perception was key: "They felt like the products weren't high quality enough, the engineering wasn't good enough."

2010 may prove pivotal for the Prius, as Nissan and Chevrolet debut plug-in models and Ford and Honda release new versions of their hybrids. Depending on how Toyota handles its current crisis, experts said, the clean-car balance could tilt.

"Does a downturn in Prius' fortunes represent an opportunity that other manufacturers -- if they are willing and able -- may step into to exploit?" asked Ken Kurani, a research engineer at UC Davis' Institute of Transportation Studies. "Wouldn't it be ironic if Toyota's miscue turned out to be good for hybrids and electric-drive because it created an opening for other manufacturers?"