As international pressure steadily increases, will the United States deliver on its promises and meet expectations at this year's climate summit in Copenhagen? During today's OnPoint, Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, previews this year's international negotiations and discusses his expectations for the U.S. delegation. De Boer explains how the U.S. domestic climate discussion will affect the international talks. He also addresses what impact the global economic downturn will have on prospects for a post-2012 climate treaty.

Transcript

Monica Trauzzi: Welcome to the show. I'm Monica Trauzzi. With us today is Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Mr. de Boer, it's great to have you back on the show.

Yvo de Boer: Nice to be here.

Monica Trauzzi: You're in Washington this week meeting with administration officials and members of Congress, what message are you relaying to U.S. lawmakers ahead of this year's international climate meeting in Copenhagen?

Yvo de Boer: First of all, that we're really happy to see the United States back into the international climate change process, that President Obama has committed to this issue both domestically and internationally. And secondly that we need that U.S. engagement and the engagement of other countries to come to really a global deal at the end of this year to move action on climate change forward.

Monica Trauzzi: Many experts believe the chances of passing a treaty this year are slim. How far do you believe the 2009 negotiations will go and will a new international climate treaty pass, this year?

Yvo de Boer: Well, I think I Copenhagen, certainly Copenhagen at the end of this year, where the deal needs to be done, certainly needs to reach agreement on four political essentials. First of all, I think that we need clarity on by how much are industrialized countries willing to reduce their emissions? Secondly, I think we need clarity on how much major developing countries like China and India are willing to do to limits the growth of their emissions. Thirdly, I think we need clarity on finance that's going to the essential to help developing countries engage both to reduce their emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. And fourthly we'll need decisions on how that money is going to be managed. So if Copenhagen can deliver on those four points I'd be happy.

Monica Trauzzi: So, we don't necessarily need to have something signed?

Yvo de Boer: Well, I think we need to get something signed and agreed, but I think it will be very difficult to get every final, small detail of a whole new treaty done.

Monica Trauzzi: How much of the Copenhagen outcome hinges on what the U.S. does domestically this year?

Yvo de Boer: Hard to say. I think there needs to be confidence in this country that a policy package can be put in place, that the legislation is on track as it were. But for an international agreement, domestic legislation doesn't have to be in place. If you look back to the Kyoto Protocol, most countries that signed up to a target there only subsequently developed the policy package.

Monica Trauzzi: So, what does the U.S. delegation need to have in hand in Copenhagen in order to please the international community? What do they need to be saying and doing?

Yvo de Boer: Well, I think there are two communities that need to be pleased. Yes, there's the international community, but there's the domestic community as well and I think that the two are linked. I think that the international community will want to see the United States showing ambition at home by adopting an ambitious national target. And secondly I think the international community will want to see the United States reaching out to developing countries to help them engage as well. And similarly, or in a related way, I think on the domestic front it's really important to see that other countries are engaging as well, other industrialized countries with major developing countries like China and India as well.

Monica Trauzzi: Do you think U.S. lawmakers would approve an international climate treaty before adopting domestic legislation? I mean how concerned are you that this could all be derailed in the ratification process?

Yvo de Boer: Well, my big lesson from the Kyoto era is that it's really important that the government delegation that represents the United States is in close touch with the Senate, with the elected officials on what's acceptable and what's not. I think that a major shortcoming of Kyoto was that the official delegation came back with a treaty they knew was never going to make it through the Senate. And this time I have the feeling that the communication is much stronger, that the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, through John Kerry, is really expressing strongly what they feel needs to be done in Copenhagen.

Monica Trauzzi: We'll need 67 votes in the Senate though in order to ratify the next global climate treaty. Looking at the makeup of the Senate right now, that seems like a long shot. It could be very difficult to get those votes. Is President Obama making promises that he can't necessarily keep at this point?

Yvo de Boer: Well, I don't think he's made any promises at this point except that he wants to engage and he wants to work towards the results. But I think the proof of the pudding is in what do we come back with some Copenhagen? Kyoto was rejected mainly for two reasons. It was rejected because it did not involve action on the part of major developing countries and it failed because it was felt that Kyoto would be harmful to the U.S. economy. So I think, for a start, those would be two points of attention in the negotiations as they move forward that would give whatever comes out a much better chance of making it.

Monica Trauzzi: What are you thoughts on the partisan divide that still exists over cap and trade in the United States? It's seen as very politically divisive and also a liable issue.

Yvo de Boer: Well, the international community, as a whole, seems to be moving down that road. You've got Europe already engaged in emissions trading, Canada, Australia, other industrialized countries moving in the same direction and I believe about 23 percent of the U,S, economy, in fact, already has been under something that's moving towards a cap-and-trade regime given legislation that various states have adopted. So it seems to be the trend of where things are going.

Monica Trauzzi: You mentioned the economy; the global recession is expected to result in reduction of greenhouse gas emissions because manufacturing and other polluting industries are shrinking. Does that lessen the pressure on countries to act and sign this next treaty?

Yvo de Boer: No, it doesn't and I get the impression talking to business people that they still want clarity from Copenhagen. If you're making investments now, for example, in the energy sector, in power plants that are going to be around for the next 30 to 50 years, you can't really afford to keep waiting and waiting and waiting for governments to say where they're going to go on this issue.

Monica Trauzzi: So, overall, do you think this economic downturn is going to have an impact, any impact on the Copenhagen negotiations?

Yvo de Boer: Oh, it's certainly having an impact. I mean you see already that investments in renewable energy projects are going down, partly because of the oil price going down and partly because of the economic activity going down. So, in that sense, the financial crisis is having an impact. At the same time, there is obviously less money around, which will make raising resources for international cooperation more difficult. So, undoubtedly, it will have an impact, but I have the sense also having been to the world economic forum in Davos, that people really want to push ahead and get clarity in Copenhagen.

Monica Trauzzi: The price of carbon has been very volatile in recent months; it's also pretty low at this point. This is making things uncertain for industry. What are you hearing from businesses in terms of that volatility and how can we address that?

Yvo de Boer: What I'm hearing is that the carbon market is a market like any other market and is being impacted by the economic crisis in the same way that other markets are being impacted. If economic activity goes down, then emissions go down and the demand for emission credits will go down. But I'm also sure that all of that will rebound once the economy begins to recover.

Monica Trauzzi: Final question here. Are you confident that President Obama can successfully engage China and India and convince them to sign on to the next treaty?

Yvo de Boer: Well, what people will be or not be willing to sign up to in Copenhagen is a tough call at this moment in time, but I think that Secretary of State Clinton's visit to Beijing was a really important and encouraging step to get us moving one that road.

Monica Trauzzi: OK, we'll end it right there. Thanks for coming on the show.

Yvo de Boer: You're very welcome.

Monica Trauzzi: And thanks for watching. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

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