It’s not just Hormuz: Widening oil supply shocks pose growing GOP danger

By James Bikales | 07/24/2026 06:21 AM EDT

With the midterms four months away, it appears to be growing harder — not easier — for the Trump administration to temper rising global oil prices.

A Yemeni soldier sails near a liquefied petroleum gas tanker

A Yemeni soldier sails near a liquefied petroleum gas tanker in waters north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in Mokha, Yemen, on April 6. Abdulnasser Alseddik/AP

The expanding conflict in the Middle East is thwarting the Trump administration’s bid to lower gasoline prices ahead of the looming midterm elections.

It’s not just the Strait of Hormuz — oil tankers are now facing attacks on three major shipping routes as of this week. Global crude oil inventories are reaching critically low levels, with little hope of refilling them soon. And the temporary measures that have kept markets afloat since the war in Iran began, such as releases from nations’ petroleum reserves, are nearing their end.

The global Brent crude benchmark price has surged more than $25 a barrel since President Donald Trump declared the tenuous ceasefire with Iran “OVER!” earlier this month, topping $100 briefly on Thursday after reports that the Houthis in Yemen struck at least one oil tanker along a key shipping route that has provided Middle Eastern oil tankers an alternative to the threats of traversing the Strait of Hormuz.

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For Republicans eager to put as much distance as possible between the gasoline price spikes in the spring and the Nov. 3 midterm elections, the new escalation presents a threat to their slim majorities in Congress. Gas prices jumped 15 cents from last week to $4.09 a gallon on Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association.

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