Making sense of the oil market chaos

By Manuel Quiñones | 07/31/2026 06:10 AM EDT

Global oil markets remain volatile as tensions flare between the U.S. and Iran.

A man sits on a surfboard as a container ship and other commercial vessels appear anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran.

A man sits on a surfboard as a container ship and other commercial vessels appear anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, on July 27. Razieh Poudat/ISNA/AP

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The world’s oil markets remain volatile as conflict in the Middle East drags on and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains minimal.

Ben Lefebvre, POLITICO’s deputy energy editor, and James Bikales, oil and gas reporter, discussed why zig-zagging crude prices have not spiked more — and where they are likely to go next.

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“A lot of analysts thought that oil might be a lot higher,” Ben said, adding that among the reasons those predictions didn’t pan out is “China ramped down its imports of oil significantly.”

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