Democratic senators Monday pressed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to clamp down on prediction markets based on wildfires, citing “perverse incentives” from betting on human suffering.
In a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and others urged safeguards to prevent traders from making a profit on wildfires, which have burned more than a million acres this year in Oregon alone.
“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” said the lawmakers, who cited reports that the Polymarket prediction platform in 2025 accepted more than $1.2 million in bets surrounding the Palisades and Eaton fires in California through an offshore site.
“There’s also the heightened risk — according to state and local fire officials — that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful,” the lawmakers said.
