Trump’s rosy Hormuz claims collide with tanker data

By Scott Waldman | 08/18/2026 07:02 AM EDT

The Trump administration has said the Strait of Hormuz is open for business and oil is flowing. Market trackers suggest a less rosy picture.

A small boat sails past cargo ships and other commercial vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran.

A small boat sails past cargo ships and other commercial vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, on Aug. 5. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/AP

Energy Secretary Chris Wright says about 9 million barrels of oil are moving through the Strait of Hormuz every day.

But nonpartisan oil tanker trackers say it’s likely 7 million barrels at best, or more likely, closer to 5 million.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that the oil is flowing freely through the strait, which even before the war was a global energy choke point. On Monday, he told reporters at the White House that the U.S. has total control over the strait and that “we’re taking out millions of barrels of oil a week.”

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“The strait is open and the oil prices are coming down, and they will continue to come down unless we decide to do something more drastic than what we’ve been doing,” Trump said.