Ukraine energy chief says infrastructure attacks will shape war’s outcome

By Veronika Melkozerova | 08/04/2026 06:40 AM EDT

Ukraine hopes its campaign to destroy Russia’s refineries will end the war this fall but is preparing for energy attacks this winter, Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal told POLITICO.

KYIV — Ukraine and Russia are locked in a battle to smash each other’s energy systems — a campaign that will define any future peace talks, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal told POLITICO.

“Putin wants to finish off our energy system and derail our economy and weapons production,” Shmyhal said in an exclusive interview from his office in the Ukrainian capital. “He also hopes in winter our society will break from exhaustion and pressure leadership to sign the surrender.”

Ukraine is responding with a long-range strike campaign against Russian refineries, which has taken out about 40 percent of Russia’s primary refining capacity and created growing fuel shortages across the country.

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“It’s like the 12th round and each boxer hopes their rival will fall first,” Shmyhal said.