4 dynamics shaping the shutdown talks

By Andres Picon | 11/03/2025 06:31 AM EST

There’s increasing pressure on lawmakers to end the impasse, but bipartisan talks remain tenuous.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) stands near a sign.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) during a press conference on federal food aid last week. Francis Chung/POLITICO

Bipartisan negotiations on potential shutdown off-ramps are starting to pick up steam in the Senate as Congress is all but certain to break the record this week for the longest funding lapse in United States history.

The pressure on lawmakers is mounting, with many federal workers, farmers, business groups and service members pleading for Democrats to pass Republicans’ funding patch to reopen the government.

But serious obstacles continue to stand in the way, and the likelihood of a breakthrough in the coming days remains low. Democrats are still demanding a negotiation on health care, with premiums for millions of Americans set to increase this week.

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“Republicans have brought the American people to the brink; Republicans have refused to do anything,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer quipped Thursday.

President Donald Trump on Friday called Democrats “Crazed Lunatics that have lost all sense of WISDOM and REALITY.” He said on social media that Democrats’ demands on health care “will hurt American citizens, and Republicans will not let it happen.”

Still, the extended shutdown is forcing more Senate Republicans and Democrats to the table.

Leadership-level negotiations still are not happening in earnest, and Trump has not been involved at all, but rank-and-file senators are having conversations about the path forward and eyeing multiple options for getting out of the shutdown.

Those options include passing fiscal 2026 appropriations bills to reestablish some semblance of trust among lawmakers and get agencies back open one by one.

However, Democrats recently blocked one spending bill on the floor, and House Speaker Mike Johnson has so far rejected the possibility of bringing the House back into session for anything other than reopening the whole government.

Appropriators say they are continuing to work on full-year appropriations bills, but they have not made any discernible progress in weeks.

Trump last week called for Senate Republicans to scrap the filibuster in order to allow the GOP majority to pass its funding bill without needing Democratic support. But Republican leaders quickly shot down that possibility because of the precedent it would set.

Meanwhile, Republicans’ current funding proposal would reopen the government only through Nov. 21, leaving little time for Congress to process a longer-term funding plan.

In search of ‘critical mass’

Conversations between Senate Republicans and Democrats are ramping up, and senators said those conversations continued through the weekend, though there did not appear to be a meaningful compromise in sight.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said last week that discussions had not yet reached a “critical mass.”

The South Dakota Republican also reiterated that Trump would be open to meeting with Democratic leaders on health care this week — but only if Democrats vote to open the government first, which has been a nonstarter for Schumer and his party.

“The government’s been open all year, up until the last few weeks, and they refused to work with us on [health care], so how are we supposed to believe that?” said Senate Appropriations Vice Chair Patty Murray (D-Wash.).

Trump remains the biggest X-factor for ending the shutdown. Democrats insist that the president must become involved in the discussions and give congressional Republicans the green light to negotiate on health care to create an off-ramp.

“I don’t think the Congress can reach agreement at this point without him, I just don’t,” said Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), a senior appropriator who attended one of Johnson’s daily press conferences last week, watching from the back of the room.

“This should be his first order of business, to call these leaders and get them to agree,” Kaptur said of Trump. “He’s a dealmaker. Make a deal.”

Thune has downplayed the possibility of serious talks with Democratic leaders, given their apparent intransigence, but he indicated that talks with rank-and-file Democrats could “be fruitful.”

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), another senior appropriator, has called for senators to stay in Washington until they work out a deal.

Pressure points

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) speaking and gesturing.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) last week. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

The shutdown’s worsening impacts on Americans could get more Democrats to break from their party leaders and vote for Republicans’ continuing resolution, but the Democratic caucus has not shown many signs of cracking yet.

Johnson and House Republican leaders have been using their daily press conferences to highlight the funding lapse’s impacts on national parks, farmers, air traffic controllers and other groups, while blaming Democrats for those repercussions.

Airlines and a major union representing thousands of federal workers have called on Congress to pass Republicans’ continuing resolution.

“Just vote for the CR, and people will stop getting hurt,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer said Friday on CNBC.

Senators have proposed various bills to fund specific programs, such as nutrition assistance and to pay air traffic controllers as flight delays pile up.

However, Thune, Johnson and the White House have all dismissed those so-called rifle-shot bills. They say that strategy represents a patchwork approach that leaves most needs unaddressed while relieving pressure on lawmakers to end the shutdown entirely.

“They’re not going to get on the floor,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) of those bills. “The Democrats get right up to it and then they pull back. … Thune says he’s tired of playing the games; he’s not going to put them on the floor.”

Some observers also believe off-cycle elections this week in New Jersey and Virginia could provide an off-ramp for some Democrats to get behind the GOP funding bill, but Democrats have not taken any of the other off-ramps Republicans have eyed as potential dealmakers.

Progress on fiscal 2026 bills

Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.) confer.
Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) and ranking member Patty Murray (D-Wash.). | Francis Chung/POLITICO

Appropriators say they are continuing to work behind the scenes on finalizing full-year spending bills in hopes of Congress making some progress on fiscal 2026 spending.

“Every day the government remains shut, the risk to full-year appropriations grows,” House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said in a statement. “We are losing daylight fast.”

A three-bill package containing the Agriculture, Legislative Branch and Military Construction-Veterans Affairs bills has already been informally negotiated. But Republican leaders are still looking for unanimous consent to send it to a bipartisan conference negotiation with the House.

“It’s really [about] working out something with the [Democrats],” said Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), chair of the Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee. “I think that’ll be part of it as we go to approps and to Defense approps, which is good. That’s what we should do.”

Democrats last week were gauging interest in various other potential spending bill packages, according to Punchbowl News, including one containing the Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, Transportation-HUD and Commerce-Justice-Science bills.

The Energy-Water bill is unlikely to be formally finalized or marked up anytime soon. Kennedy, the chair of that subcommittee, said last week that his understanding was the bill had been finalized.

However, Murray, the top Democrat on the Energy-Water Subcommittee, said Wednesday that she and Kennedy did not yet have a final agreement.

A spokesperson for Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) also said last week that the Energy-Water Subcommittee was continuing to work on the bill.

Eliminating the filibuster

The fastest way to end the shutdown would be for Senate Republicans to get rid of the filibuster, which prevents the majority from passing spending legislation without some buy-in from the minority.

But the idea has little support among Senate Republicans and faces stiff resistance from leadership to the rank-and-file — even with Trump calling for that approach.

“It is now time for the Republicans to play their ‘TRUMP CARD,’ and go for what is called the Nuclear Option — Get rid of the Filibuster, and get rid of it, NOW!” Trump wrote on Truth Social last week.

Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) wrote on X that the filibuster “forces us to find common ground in the Senate.” He said, “Power changes hands, but principles shouldn’t. I’m a firm no on eliminating it.”

Reporters Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill contributed.