California water officials forecast 5% allocation after dry October

By Camille von Kaenel | 12/03/2024 12:30 PM EST

The first allocation estimate of the year can change depending on winter storms before becoming final in May or June.

A coating of snow is seen below ski lifts.

The initial estimate did not take November’s above-average storms into account and reflects a dry and warm October, according to a DWR press release. Brooke Hess-Homeier/AP

SACRAMENTO, California — California water officials estimated Monday they would be able to provide water agencies with only 5 percent of their requested supplies in 2025, half the initial forecast last year.

The estimate is the first of the new water year, which began Oct. 1, and could still increase depending on this winter’s precipitation. It is based on reservoir levels and conservative seasonal forecasts of rain and snow.

“Based on long-range forecasts and the possibility of a La Niña year, the State Water Project is planning for a dry 2025 punctuated by extreme storms like we’ve seen in late November,” said Department of Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth in a press release. “We need to prepare for any scenario, and this early in the season we need to take a conservative approach to managing our water supply. Our wettest months of the season are still to come.”

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The State Water Project delivers water from wet and snowy Northern California to 29 public water agencies serving 27 million Californians in central and Southern California. It supplies about half of the state; the other half is supplied by the federally run Central Valley Project, which serves mainly farmland.

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