China’s planet-warming carbon emissions fell in the final quarter of 2025, marking nearly two years of flat or falling climate pollution.
Carbon dioxide emissions fell 1 percent in the last three months of the year, leading to a likely decline of 0.3 percent for the entire year, according to new analysis for Carbon Brief by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. That means China — the world’s leading greenhouse gas polluter — has had emissions plateau or drop emissions for 21 months, the longest-ever stretch not associated with a fall in power demand.
Other estimates show China’s emissions trajectory for 2025 ranging from a projected 0.4 percent increase, as of early November, to a drop of 2.5 percent.
The data come as the U.S., the world’s second-largest emitter, rolls back regulations, strips away hundreds of billions of dollars for clean energy and uses executive power to keep aging coal plants running. On Thursday, EPA plans to repeal the endangerment finding, the scientific cornerstone that allows it to regulate U.S. climate pollution.
