Global oil consumption in 2026 is expected to fall by more than 1 million barrels per day from last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday, as countries grapple with fuel disruptions and soaring prices from the war in the Middle East.
Even with a delicate ceasefire currently in place between the U.S., Israel and Iran, EIA said the Strait of Hormuz remains “effectively closed in the near term,” disrupting production and shipping in the Persian Gulf. In its newest Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA said high fuel prices, tight supply and government initiatives to tamp down oil demand would reduce consumption by 1.1 million bpd compared to 2025.
EIA said that reduced demand in 2026 “could limit crude oil price increases” caused by the disruptions to the flow of oil through the strait, though it does not expect traffic to return to pre-conflict levels until early 2027. It also predicted that demand would jump by 2.5 million bpd in 2027 as prices cool and Middle East production resumes.
“Any scenario involving full restoration of inventories, production, and trade flows to pre-conflict levels must account for the partial restructuring of the global oil market that has already occurred,” EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said in a statement.
