Democrats’ plans for passing another big climate bill in the next Congress are no more after losing the Senate and the White House.
Even if Democrats can retake control of the House — an outcome that may not be known for days or weeks — their gains on energy and the environment over the last four years of the Biden administration are now in major peril.
Republicans have promised, if given the chance, to use the budget reconciliation process to push through conservative tax priorities — paid for by gutting portions of the Democrats’ 2022 climate law like the tax credits for electric vehicles.
And former President Donald Trump, now returning to office next year, has pledged to reverse outgoing President Joe Biden’s executive orders and rules designed to significantly reduce planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions and expand more domestic oil and gas drilling.
In a speech to supporters early Wednesday morning in West Palm Beach, Florida, shortly after winning the battleground state of Pennsylvania, Trump alluded to his plans to grow U.S. energy production by ribbing his former rival in the presidential race, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Trump said he told Kennedy, a longtime environmentalist who is expected to have some role in advising on health policy, “leave the oil to me. We have more liquid gold — oil and gas — we have more liquid gold than any country in the world. More than Saudi Arabia, more than Russia.”
“Bobby, stay away from the liquid gold,” Trump quipped. “Other than that, have a good time.”
Congressional Republicans who released statements celebrating their new Senate majority, and the likely favorable outcome for their party in the presidential contest, also made clear that expanding U.S. oil production would be a major priority.
“We chose a President who will unleash American energy [and] lower prices,” said Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), the ranking member on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee who is vying to be the Senate majority whip.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said he “look[ed] forward to working with President Trump to lower food and energy prices for families.”
Congressional Democrats, who had for months been generating a wish list of climate priorities they wanted to tackle in a follow-up bill to the Inflation Reduction Act, in contrast said little throughout the night Tuesday and into Wednesday morning as the election results crystallized.
Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and her surrogates also stayed quiet.
“We still have votes to count, we still have states that have not been called yet,” Cedric Richmond, co-chair of Harris’ campaign, told supporters Wednesday morning, promising the Democratic nominee would address “the nation” at some point later that day.
‘Thin line of protection’
Leaders of the nation’s leading environmental groups spent record amounts trying to make climate change a winning issue on the 2024 campaign.
They presented Trump, who has called the climate crisis a “hoax,” as an existential threat to progress toward stopping the worst effects of global warming.
Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), a climate hawk who’d like to chair the House Natural Resources Committee, said a potential Democratic majority in the House presented a “thin line for protection on climate.”
Some Democrats and advocates still think the fate of the clean energy tax credits codified in the Inflation Reduction Act stand the best chance of survival at this point.
These tax credits have led to major manufacturing investments and job growth in red districts around the country, and Republican lawmakers are increasingly coming out in support of keeping them intact.
Andrew Reagan, the executive director of Clean Energy for America — which spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads supporting Harris’ presidential bid — said in a statement that the recent expansion of clean energy jobs and manufacturing around the country would have staying power no matter who’s in charge.
“Clean energy is an integral part of our economy and is here to stay,” he said. “With over 3.5 million Americans working in the industry, we can only move forward with our clean energy future.”
Zach Friedman, senior director for federal policy at Ceres — a nonprofit which advocates for sustainability measures within the business sector — agreed.
“The U.S. is seeing a remarkable surge in clean energy manufacturing investment, driven by a wave of new policies and delivered by private sector leaders and American workers building the energy infrastructure of the future,” he said.
“These policies,” Friedman continued, “have widespread support of America’s business community and are gaining significant bipartisan support in Congress.”
Conservatives working on energy issues, meanwhile, called the election results so far a clear mandate for the type of environmental policies lawmakers should champion on Capitol Hill.
Heather Reams, president of the center-right Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, asserted in a statement that voters Tuesday sent “a message that when America produces more energy, global emissions go down.”
“This is proof that reducing emissions isn’t a red vs blue issue,” she said, “it’s a red, white and blue issue.”
Daniel Turner, founder and executive director for Power the Future, a nonprofit “dedicated to fighting for American energy workers,” said the election outcome signaled that “our long national nightmare with the Green New Deal is finally over.”
He urged Republicans not to strike any deals during the lame-duck session that would sacrifice the party’s leverage in January.
