Coal is no longer king, but it’s still the biggest driver behind annual fluctuations in U.S. climate pollution.
The abrupt decline in coal-fired electricity last year is expected to level off in 2024. Coal plant retirements will fall to their lowest level since 2011, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The slowdown in coal plant shutdowns represents a major obstacle to meeting America’s climate ambitions. It also means total U.S. emissions will plateau in 2024, as oil and natural gas demand are projected to remain relatively flat.
The changing coal trend, along with rising natural gas consumption and persistent oil demand, is a recipe for flat U.S. emissions in the power sector.
The EIA estimates that energy-related emissions will decline two-tenths of a percent this year, a far cry from the nearly 7 percent reduction the U.S. needs every year through 2030 to meet its commitments under the Paris climate accord.
