Energy experts said gas prices would stay high. Why were they wrong?

By Scott Waldman | 06/30/2026 01:25 PM EDT

The unexpected drop in gasoline prices has given President Donald Trump a political boost, even as energy analysts warn the fragile ceasefire and tightening oil supplies could quickly reverse the trend.

A person pumps gas at a Mobil gas station.

A person pumps gas at a Mobil gas station in Austin, Texas, on Thursday. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Gasoline prices have fallen precipitously since the U.S. and Iran began their fragile truce, defying expert predictions of a long summer slog with sky-high prices.

Instead of spiraling upward, the average price at the pump has plummeted 70 cents per gallon in a month from a peak of $4.56. A little over a week since the memorandum of understanding was signed between the countries, a barrel of oil costs just a little more than it did before the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran in late February.

It wasn’t supposed to work this way, according to energy experts whose predictions of $150 barrel of oil, $5 gasoline and summer recessions were widely quoted in the media, including POLITICO.

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For now, they’ve been proven wrong for a litany of reasons, including a surprisingly weak Chinese economy and a failure to imagine how handily the president could bully the markets into submission.

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