Democrat Monica Tranel’s campaign is boasting internal polling that puts her close to unseating Montana Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke in a closely watched rematch.
Forecasters predict Zinke, the former Interior secretary, will eke out a win. He’s also ahead in the money race. But Tranel, an environmental attorney, says an internal survey has her just 2 percentage points behind Zinke.
“I’m gonna win this race because I’m gonna get my message out right,” Tranel said in an interview with POLITICO’s E&E News.
Zinke beat Tranel by 3 points when they last faced off in 2022. But as the country barrels toward November elections, Tranel says she is capitalizing on Zinke’s vulnerabilities.
The Republican resigned as Trump Interior secretary in 2019 following a string of ethics controversies. He denies any wrongdoing.
“I get a report card every two years,” Zinke said during an interview last week, suggesting he has the support of voters who have repeatedly sent him to Congress.
Zinke served in the Montana Senate and a short stint in the House between 2015 and 2017 before joining the Trump administration. He returned to the House last year.
A September poll conducted by AARP had Zinke with a 6-point lead. The survey also had Republican Tim Sheehy ahead of incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) in the state’s marquee race.
Forecasters at both the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections say the race leans in Zinke’s direction. He had raised almost $7 million compared with Tranel’s $3.1 million by the last reporting deadline in June. He also had more cash on hand.
But the AARP poll has Tranel with a double-digit advantage over Zinke with voters aged 18-49. Independent, urban and college-educated voters also favored her.
“He’s not even really campaigning seriously. He’s not taking Montana seriously, and it’s time for him to go,” Tranel said.
Bitter fight
Tranel, like two years ago, is keen on reminding Montana voters about the numerous allegations and investigations stemming from Zinke’s time at Interior.
The department’s Office of Inspector General said Zinke violated ethics standards by misleading investigators looking into a land deal and a Native American casino.
“He’s been caught over and over using public office to enrich himself,” says one of Tranel’s ads. “Ryan Zinke sold out Montana,” says another.
But Zinke, much like former President Donald Trump, has said all investigations have exonerated him. He’s also accused the “deep state” for his woes.
The Republican is focusing on attacking Tranel — who worked for the state’s Public Service Commission, which regulates utilities — as out of touch.
“[President Joe] Biden and Monica Tranel think your child’s school should be allowed to talk to your kids about transitioning their gender without your knowledge,” says a Zinke ad. “That’s not Montana, but that’s Monica.”
Tranel was once a Republican who worked for the late GOP Sen. Conrad Burns. But Montana State University political science professor Eric Austin said Zinke is “working really hard to paint Tranel as a sort of Missoula liberal,” referring to the state’s most left-leaning city, which is part of Zinke’s district.
Tranel has been looking to take advantage of the backlash against the proliferation of vacation rental properties on the platform Airbnb. Tranel showcases one of Zinke’s rentals in one of her ads.
Zinke called Tranel a hypocrite because of her previous investments in the company. Tranel had between $15,001 and $50,000 of Airbnb stock in a joint account with her husband listed on her 2022 financial disclosure report. Her latest disclosure form does not list the Airbnb stock.
“Typical. The only thing preventing her from being a full blown DC liberal is the good people of Montana had the sense to defeat her in every election she’s run in,” Zinke said of Tranel on social media platform X. He called her a “Train wreck.”
Tranel told E&E News, “Ryan Zinke is using some kind of crazy D.C. playbook from the Republican Party division and culture issues. And that is not what is affecting Montana right now.”
Energy, environment
Tranel’s career includes attorney stints at the Montana Public Service Commission and the Montana Consumer Council. She boasts about taking on NorthWestern Energy.
Since 2016, she’s been in solo practice, representing landowners and clean energy developers in Public Service Commission-related issues.
“Montana is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the energy transition and to benefit from it economically,” said Tranel.
She’s spoken in favor of permitting overhaul legislation on Capitol Hill to accelerate the development of climate-friendly energy projects, and she accused Zinke of not doing enough about climate change.
“People who are serious about solving this problem are serious about solutions that make sense, and Ryan Zinke is not,” said Tranel.
Zinke — who sits on the Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior and Environment — generally follows Republican orthodoxy on energy and the environment.
He took a strong stance earlier this year against the Biden administration’s decision against new coal leases from the Powder River Basin, which includes parts of Montana and Wyoming.
But Austin of Montana State said Zinke can also point to work protecting public lands. Zinke is sponsoring H.R. 8836 to promote wildlife corridors and co-sponsoring H.R. 8957 to study the carbon impact of U.S. exports. The idea is to show how American products are more climate friendly.
“No one is better,” Zinke told E&E News. “Not only are we energy independent and energy dominant, but we’ve also lowered emissions.”
