Germany slashes growth forecast amid Iran war fallout

By Geoffrey Smith | 04/23/2026 12:05 PM EDT

The government blames rising fuel costs and geopolitical shocks for renewed weakness, but economists say the coalition shares the blame.

Clouds gather over the Reichstag building.

The German government’s downgrade was no surprise after the International Monetary Fund and leading domestic research institutes cut their forecasts in recent weeks. John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images

Europe’s economic engine is sputtering yet again, and the outlook is getting worse with every day that the conflict in the Middle East drags on.

The German government cut its growth forecast for this year and next on Wednesday, squarely blaming the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

The conservative-led coalition of Chancellor Friedrich Merz now expects the economy to grow only 0.5 percent this year, down from a prior estimate of 1 percent. For 2027, it likewise trimmed its forecast to 0.9 percent from 1.3 percent.

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“Economic developments in Germany will depend crucially on a resolution of the conflict in the Middle East,” the German economy ministry said in a regular update of its forecasts. “Even then, however, high energy prices, supply disruptions and economic strains are likely to persist for some time.”

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