A key oil shipping route in the Middle East will stay open for now, a Houthi-affiliated group told POLITICO’s E&E News on Monday.
The Strait of Bab el-Mandeb off Yemen has emerged as a key alternate shipping route in the last month for about 10 percent of the world’s oil and gas needs. That’s because Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has prevented hundreds of millions of barrels from reaching the market in the last month.
The entry of the Yemen-based Houthis into the conflict a few days ago has raised concerns about escalation spiraling out of control. But a spokesperson for a Houthi group said there are no current plans for shutting Bab el-Mandeb, a busy Red Sea choke point. That group, the Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center, oversees communication between the Houthis and the shipping industry operating in the region.
“There is no cause for concern in this regard, and at present there is no reason preventing navigation in the Bab al-Mandab Strait from continuing,” spokesperson Waleed Abdallah said in an email response to questions. “The Republic of Yemen remains committed to safeguarding navigation in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, as well as ensuring the free flow of trade.”
The group also distanced itself from an Iranian military official who claimed Bab el-Mabdeb would be closed if President Donald Trump expanded U.S. attacks on energy infrastructure. Any statement from a group outside Yemen should be “considered as expressing the viewpoint of its issuer and does not necessarily reflect an official general position of Yemen,” he noted.
The reemergence of the Houthis is noteworthy and a sign that the war could quickly widen, said Mohammed al-Basha, founder of the Basha Report risk-advisory firm based in Washington and an expert on Yemen.
For now, he said, it appears the group is explicitly signaling to the U.S. and to Saudi Arabia that it is not targeting their interests.
But the reappearance of the Houthis after a month of silence shows they are preparing to escalate at some point if the war continues. Already, in the last few days, the Houthis have launched three waves of attacks on Israel.
Al-Basha said he has advised clients that ships associated with Israel are not safe traveling through the region. That could include ships with commercial ties to Israel, or Israeli ports, he said. It could also mean a shipping company with senior board members or investors that are Israeli or even a sister company that does business with Israel.
“If the war with Iran continues, the Houthis are going to escalate gradually, and right now they’re just focused on Israel,” he said. “But then that would expand to other commercial shipping and U.S. assets, and we could see a scenario where they could choke the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and even escalate towards targeting Saudi Arabia.”
The entrance of the Houthis spooked oil markets, and U.S. crude prices Monday settled above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022.
The Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, which is just 20 miles wide at its broadest point, is the fourth-largest global shipping choke point and connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. It is situated between Yemen on the east and Djibouti and Eritrea on the west. It is essential to many industries, including electronics, clothing and food supplies.
The U.S. currently has a ceasefire agreement with the Houthis, signed last year, to end years of attacks on shipping in the region.
