How long will Trump’s oil boom last?

By Benjamin Storrow | 10/09/2025 06:18 AM EDT

Production is at record levels but that might change.

President Donald Trump speaks in the White House on Wednesday.

President Donald Trump speaks in the White House on Wednesday. Evan Vucci/AP

It’s boom time in the U.S. oil patch, but storm clouds are gathering.

Oil companies are planning to slash payroll — as production surges, demand stagnates and storage tanks around the world fill up. The political consequences are potentially large. Falling oil prices could give President Donald Trump a boost in the form of cheaper gasoline. But fall too far, and it risks decimating the industry.

For now, the market is in suspended animation. U.S. oil production hit a record 13.6 million barrels in July and OPEC+ is signaling further production bumps. But many analysts think productions cuts could be needed to bring oil markets into balance.

Advertisement

“There is a lot of question in the market of: ‘Is this growth sustainable?’” said Rory Johnston, an oil analyst who writes the newsletter Commodity Context.

GET FULL ACCESS