How the latest train merger could snarl climate goals

By Mike Lee | 01/20/2026 06:15 AM EST

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern say their merger would decrease emissions-heavy truck traffic. Rail shippers argue the opposite.

A Norfolk Southern freight train passes through Homestead, Pennsylvania.

A Norfolk Southern freight train passes through Homestead, Pennsylvania, last year. Gene J. Puskar/AP

The biggest railroad merger in U.S. history could either cut planet-warming emissions or increase them — depending on whom you ask.

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern say their proposed $85 billion merger would be a win for the environment, shifting as many as 2 million truckloads a year off the nation’s highways. But other major railroads, environmentalists and rail-using industries contend that it would do the opposite, pushing cargo off the rails and onto trucks, snarling the growth of passenger rail in the process.

“On the one hand, UP and NS argue that a larger, cohesive network will allow them to move freight more efficiently and grow their business substantially by pulling freight off trucks,” Kevin Brubaker, deputy director of the Environmental Law and Policy Center, said in an email. “On the other hand, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that a larger carrier will do just the opposite.”

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The outcome of the merger could have long-term effects on U.S. climate emissions since trucks produce four times more pollution than trains when hauling the same amount of cargo. The environmental debate, particularly the potential to shift cargo from trucks to rails, will be central to deliberations as regulators at the Surface Transportation Board weigh whether to approve the deal.

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