The Interior Department on Friday forecast continued dry times ahead for the two big reservoirs serving the Colorado River Basin, triggering continued water delivery reductions for some states that rely on the stressed-out river.
In an annual assessment that drives key federal water-delivery decisions, the Bureau of Reclamation projected that Lake Mead will settle at an elevation of about 1,055 feet at the end of the year. The elevation level reflects the amount of water stored in Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir.
Lake Mead’s low storage level will mean Arizona must give up 512,000 acre-feet, about 18 percent of its annual apportionment. Nevada must give up 21,000 acre-feet and Mexico will give 80,000 acre-feet or 5 percent of its annual allotment.
Interior officials emphasized that the sustained parched conditions show the need for the seven states that use the river to reach a long-term plan for its future.
“This underscores the importance of immediate action to secure the future of the Colorado River,” said David Palumbo, the Bureau of Reclamation’s acting commissioner, in a statement, adding that “we must develop new, sustainable operating guidelines that are robust enough to withstand ongoing drought and poor runoff conditions.”
States have largely remained at odds over how cuts should be split since negotiations started during the Biden administration. Recently, however, state leaders signaled some progress was being made, particularly about how to measure the amount of water in the river available to split.
Scott Cameron, the Interior Department’s acting assistant secretary for water and science, has given state negotiators a mid-November deadline to reach an agreement on a long-term plan that begins in October 2026. That requires the two basins that share the river — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming in the Upper Basin and Nevada, Arizona and California in the Lower Basin — to agree on how they will divide the reduced water deliveries.
The Lake Mead projections are part of an overall 24-month study that also assesses the coming year’s precipitation, runoff and water use throughout the Colorado River Basin.
The 24-month studies are published monthly and cover a lot of territory, but the August editions are particularly important as they determine future water deliveries to the three Lower Basin states, as well as Mexico.
“The Bureau of Reclamation’s 24-month study proves what we’ve known for decades: the Colorado River is overextended,” said Jennifer Pitt, the Colorado River program director at the National Audubon Society, adding that “we are again facing shortages, emergency measures, and the reality of needing to do more with less water.”
The specific water supply reductions for the Lower Basin states are associated with Lake Mead reservoir elevation levels set through negotiation. When the reservoir’s projected end-of-the-year elevation level falls below 1,090 feet, water supply reductions kick in the next water year, which begins in October.
The Bureau’s 24-month study issued last August projected the Jan. 1, 2025, Lake Mead elevation to be below 1,075 feet and above 1,050 feet.
Those projections resulted in a so-called Tier 1 shortage, cutting potential deliveries. Similar Tier 1 shortages were declared for 2021 and 2022, while more severe Tier 2 shortages were imposed for 2023.
“As the basin prepares for the transition to post-2026 operating guidelines, the urgency for the seven Colorado River Basin states to reach a consensus agreement has never been clearer. We cannot afford to delay,” Cameron said in a statement.
A series of existing agreements for management of the water will expire at the end of 2026.
“We must act fast to secure a sustainable water future for the 35 million people who depend on the river. That means moving beyond crisis-to-crisis management and towards long-term, equitable sharing solutions that rebalance demand with the river’s shrinking supply,” Pitt said.
In June, President Donald Trump nominated former Central Arizona Project General Manager Ted Cooke to serve as Bureau of Reclamation commissioner. He is awaiting Senate confirmation.
