Iran conflict cuts deep in places that can least afford it

By Zack Colman, Sara Schonhardt | 03/26/2026 06:17 AM EDT

Debt-stressed developing countries are the most vulnerable to soaring oil prices.

People store fuel in a plastic can at a petrol pump amid fears of a possible shortage due to the Iran war, in Srinagar, Indian-controlled Kashmir.

People store fuel in a plastic can at a petrol pump amid fears of a possible shortage due to the Iran war, in Srinagar, Indian-controlled Kashmir, on Wednesday. Mukhtar Khan/AP

Philippines proclaiming an energy emergency. India powering down factories. Bangladesh rationing fuel. Pakistan closing schools.

The developing world is absorbing some of the worst fallout from the Iran war, with harsher and more-lasting economic shocks looming on the horizon.

The joint U.S.-Israel campaign in Iran has held the global economy hostage, as volatile markets swing frantically in response to reports of strikes on major energy infrastructure or military escalation. Global oil prices rise and fall in time with President Donald Trump’s often contradictory statements about the war’s objectives and possible end point.

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As visceral scenes of death, destruction and turmoil play out in the Middle East, development experts are growing increasingly anxious that a protracted war risks social unrest and widespread economic contagion.

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