Iran conflict inflames California’s gasoline-price blame game

By Noah Baustin | 03/03/2026 06:13 AM EST

The conflict in Iran is sending oil prices soaring — and inflaming homegrown fights over fuel policy.

Gasoline price per gallon is displayed on a gas pump.

Gasoline price per gallon is displayed on a gas pump on Oct, 24, 2025, in Miami. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

California was already navigating a perfect storm on gasoline prices. The war in Iran just added the lightning.

The Middle Eastern conflict has stemmed the flow of oil shipments out of the Persian Gulf, spiking global oil commodity prices. Oil analysts are warning that the market volatility will quickly translate into an uptick of gasoline prices at the pump.

Add to that California’s ongoing refinery woes, and the Golden State could see $5 per gallon in the coming weeks, according to Ryan Cummings, chief of staff of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

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“[Retail] gas prices are already slated to continue to increase, particularly in Northern California,” Cummings said in an interview. “So then on top of that, you get the double whammy of whatever’s happening in Iran.”

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